ES "Too Efficient"

Quote from steve46:

Much of the commentary you hear is from amateurs.
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Too true.

Indexes tend to be noisy because of the number of participants and the various agendas. These participants have differing views of what constitutes "value". There are a lot of discussions about this subject, but the one that may be of most "value" to you, relates to Market Profile.
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Yes, indeed there is a tremendous amount to be learned about Market Profile.

Also there is the question of general strategy. I have traded short term momentum (intraday) for a long time now on indexes. While I am not willing to share the details, I will say that there is a lot of literature on that subject if you are willing to do some research.
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I would say that you do need to be flexible about where you decide to get in and out. Having a strong understanding of the likely holding points in the market through use of MP can help filter out some of that noise.

Also choosing appropriate time frames to analyze can make a tremendous difference. A 10 tick chart won't help much.

Edward

http://lordtedders.blogspot.com
 
Quote from steve46:

Tony:

Much of the commentary you hear is from amateurs.
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Well, all hail King Trader Steve46 b/c apparently on an anonymous message board it's very easy to call people out. I have to assume that you are referring to my post.

So, if someone posts something that you disagree with, that person is an 'amateur'. Please, do explain what exactly an amateur is and I will let you know if I fit the profile.
 
Quote from tradertony76:

Perhaps, but we newbies are out there contributing to the noise.
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Tony - I think you got the point of what I was trying to say. I apologize if my descriptions are not perfect with pinpoint accuracy, which apparently is what ET's expect... :D
 
Quote from Preston Forbes:

With retail trading and tv infomercials like investools and all that crap out there...theres lots of newbies with lots of cash trading away in these markets, seeing newbies with a million slosh 200 lots back and forth all day in the ES...makes one wonder if they have some impact on the market...perhaps that point of slippage everyone gets.
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Preston also understands the gist of my comments. The ES is by far the most popular e-mini, which would indicate that this is the instrument of choice by traders - pro or otherwise.

Can a whole bunch of 1-5 lots create extra noise on the ES? Depending when those orders come through, sure they could!
 
Quote from Pr0crast:

this is the most ridiculous analogy i've ever read. do you know any professional poker players who don't like to play against rookies? if you do, i strongly advise you to suggest to them that they reconsider their professional status.
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Crast - you have to listen to SOME poker players out there, it has been stated before and makes perfect sense.
 
This is a bit of a tangent, but we seem to be moving towards a newbie versus pro discussion.

The ES is an odd beast, to be sure. At one point, I broke down daily volume and found that 80 % of the ES volume comes from 20% of the trades posted in Time & Sales.

So you've got a huge number of TRADES coming from small orders with a high percentage of VOLUME coming from 50+ lot trades.

Big versus small, pros versus newbies.

Makes things interesting, for sure. As a small trader, it seems you almost have to be reactionary in your trades.

The big players seem to like to let the small guys run in one direction for awhile, then bring the hammer down and flush 'em.

Grinder uptrend, tick up. tick up. tick up. tick up. tick up. tick up....FLUSH, down 4-5 boxes, then resume going up.

I find the ES very challenging. Still trying to get profitable at it.

-T
 
Quote from tradertony76:

This is a bit of a tangent, but we seem to be moving towards a newbie versus pro discussion.

The ES is an odd beast, to be sure. At one point, I broke down daily volume and found that 80 % of the ES volume comes from 20% of the trades posted in Time & Sales.

So you've got a huge number of TRADES coming from small orders with a high percentage of VOLUME coming from 50+ lot trades.

Big versus small, pros versus newbies.

Makes things interesting, for sure. As a small trader, it seems you almost have to be reactionary in your trades.

The big players seem to like to let the small guys run in one direction for awhile, then bring the hammer down and flush 'em.

Grinder uptrend, tick up. tick up. tick up. tick up. tick up. tick up....FLUSH, down 4-5 boxes, then resume going up.

I find the ES very challenging. Still trying to get profitable at it.

-T
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Tony,
Great observations! Are you also watching NQ, ER2 and/or EC charts as well? You may want to at least look at one other chart just for comparison purposes. Obviously there is something going on in the ES, as you have demonstrated, to an extreme when compared to the other e-mini's.
 
Not sure what the question is here.

Are you making money in everything else , but wondering why the ES is harder?

Are you making money in the ES and wondering why everyone says its harder?

Are you losing money in everything, but looking for an alibi?

None of the contracts are 'easy' or you would simply ignore the 'hard' ES and trade them.

Then you'd ask your questions from a laptop while floating on your back in a pool somewhere.


PS If you look back objectively most days, the ES chart is no different than others in terms of trajectory and move size. If you make less per 'trend' on the ES, you also lose less when you are wrong , so that evens out.
 
Quote from Preston Forbes:

With retail trading and tv infomercials like investools and all that crap out there...theres lots of newbies with lots of cash trading away in these markets, seeing newbies with a million slosh 200 lots back and forth all day in the ES...makes one wonder if they have some impact on the market...perhaps that point of slippage everyone gets.
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How many newbies you think are trading 200 lots? 1, 10 ,1000?

Zero?

To paraphrase the old Pryor/Chase routine "200 lot newbie, dead newbie"
 
Quote from brownsfan019:

Well, all hail King Trader Steve46 b/c apparently on an anonymous message board it's very easy to call people out. I have to assume that you are referring to my post.

So, if someone posts something that you disagree with, that person is an 'amateur'. Please, do explain what exactly an amateur is and I will let you know if I fit the profile.
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Sure,

A retail trader is an amateur. Typically they trade from their homes, have relatively small accounts, limited experience and an education that often has nothing to do with finance.

In contrast a licensed, experienced, working trader possessed of an education relating to the market is considered a professional.

I did make my statement in response to yours, however I do not refer to you. I don't need to. I simply state what I believe the facts are.

I hope we are clear on this now.

Steve
 
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