ES to 1181.25 by September?

Here's my first market prediction. You'd be a flaming lunatic to trade on any of my predictions, I can't even tell you what the market's gonna do in the next hour, let alone the next couple of months.

Being a true American, a lack of ability doesn't even slightly reduce my desire to express my opinion, so here it is. In an effort to imitate good ideas which are simple, here's a very simple chart. It's a bar chart of ES during market hours (9:30 - 4 Eastern). There's a gap from 1181.25 to 1183.75 which occured overnight between 5/17 and 5/18.

<img src=http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/attachment.php?s=&postid=800132>

Thing is, these gaps nearly always close. Scrolling back 5 years, I only see 2 gaps that didn't close, both coming off of the double bottom in mid-October 2002. Errr. whoops. Those gaps closed. but there was another coming off the 800 support test in mid March 2003 that didn't close. One gap failed to close over 5 years. Plus this other one.

Something to think about. Good trading to everybody tomorrow.
 

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1165 is my 50% to 50% level for my ratio trade, so I am looking at 16 points lower then 1181 for what I think the market will do in the next several months. October and November might be rough this year with a convergence of macro events.
 
not going to say it cannot happen

but overnight on 7/7 ( london bombing ) ES hit 1170 area

and during the regular trading session

ES did not come close to that area

you really would need some unforseen catalyst

to make the spoos sloppy in a few weeks time
 
T Gregg

I agree... I thought that the bombings would trigger the eventual closure to that very gap...

I think the market will need the reminder that intrest rate will continue to climb... dollar had to fall... and oil has to keep moving forward.

As macro states... a lot of elements have to come in to play here

On that note though I think that we are at the inflection point of this rally right here... 1135.25

But who the hell know when this thing will stall.
 
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