ES Reversal Method

N

no_pm_please

Here's a new method I'm starting to use to catch some of the bounty in the ES nowadays. I'll post detailed charts, realtime trades and answer all relevant questions to promote understanding. I haven't been using it very long so it'll require some refinement over the next few months. As usual this won't do very well during trend days.

Tools

1. 5 min. ES bar chart with new highs/lows marked. Yellow lines are used to indicate the previous days high/low in relation to today.

2. 5 min. CCI Average using 20,10 for settings. This average is used for the buy and sell triggers.

3. 30 min. CCI Average using 20,10 for settings. This average is used for determining whether to look for buys or sells. The CCI above the average = look for sells, CCI below the average = look for buys.

The Method

1. Check the 30 min. CCI Average chart to determine if we're looking for a buy or sell.

2. Only start to look for a buy/sell when a new high/low has been made.

3. After the new high/low has been made look for a crossover of the CCI with it's average to signal the entry. Entry is made on the start of the next bar after the two cross. If the CCI average is already crossed, then enter the buy/sell 5 min. after the new high/low has been made. If a new high/low is made wait for another bar before entering.

4. The stop is placed 1 tick above the high or 1 tick below the low.

5. If stopped out and the price is outside of yesterday's range, then don't enter another trade in the same direction for that day.

6. Exit when either stopped out, a signal in the opposite direction is made, or a buy/sell trigger crossed while in buy/sell zone without new highs/lows being present.

Here's what my screen looks like:
 

Attachments

Let me be the first one to welcome you back. You are the one of the few that showed everyone here how it is done.

Looking forward to your journal again!!!
 
yes.. thank you for posting again!!


I really appreciate your hard work and have implemented your divergence signals into my trading with much success.:D
 
Here's the first of 3 trades from today.

In this one a gain of 9 pts was made.

I have to go for now. (Promised I'd watch Survivor with my girlfriend...lol). I'll be back later if anyone has questions. Tomorrow I'll start posting the trades live and document the charts as we go.
 

Attachments

The second trade for today was a long at 12:30 1308.00.
The stop was at 1305.75 and was stopped out at 12:35.

The third trade was a long at 12:45 1306.25. Stop was at 1304.50. I exited the trade at 2:45 when the crossover happened at 1310.00. I used discretion because I didn't think I'd get another upside move today and the crossover was so clear.
If I had stuck to the rules hardcore I would've exited on the close around 1307.75.

So for today there were 3 trades.

2 winners for +12.75
1 loser for -2.25
 
The trades for 3/29 were:

Long at 9:20 1304.00 stop at 1302.00

Reverse to short at 10:55 at 1311.50 stop at 1312.50
Stopped out at 12:20

Short at 12:45 at 1311.75 stop at 1315.25
Exited on close at 1310.00

3 trades

2 winners +9.25
1 loser -1.00

I'll start the realtime commentary tomorrow am.
 
Quote from no_pm_please:

Here's a new method I'm starting to use to catch some of the bounty in the ES nowadays. I'll post detailed charts, realtime trades and answer all relevant questions to promote understanding. I haven't been using it very long so it'll require some refinement over the next few months. As usual this won't do very well during trend days...
More...

Hi NPP,

Welcome back.

Are you still interested or responding to your prior most recent thread/method???

http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&threadid=60313

Many had questions over there that went unanswered so I figure you took that thread off your radar and I decided to ask you here in your new thread especially since I have a few questions that relates to your current and past threads here at ET.

With that said, you seem to already know that your methods doesn't perform well on trend days.

Therefore, what do you use to help you determine its a trend day as it is occurring so that you'll know to ignore any trade signals produced by your method???

Mark
 
nihabashi,

Although I think you are already well aware, it is impossible for you or for no_pm to know if it will be trend day or not. If in fact it is a trend day, no_ pm will most likely get stopped out.
 
Lousy start for a new journal. I've been trying to connect to the net for over an hour. My connection finally came up at 8:38.

I started the datafeed and checked the chart. Had a immediate crossover buy signal but since I missed the previous 8 min. I have no idea where the low of the day is. I'm skipping this first trade and will refresh from the Globalserver later.

Hopefully everything will stay up for the rest of the day.
 
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