ES Reversal Method

[no_pm_please]

The 30 min CCI has moved to overbought, however I see a large spread between the average and the 30 min. CCI. In the past, this usually meant a breakout trade. So if the 5 min. CCI crosses anytime soon, I won't be going short.

 

[Buy1Sell2]

Quote from mechtrader41:

The most logical things don`t work...

A stop 1 Tick over/under HOD/LOD is used by most amateurs and you often get faked out by the big boys by stopfishing...

This is absolutely correct .

 

[ww_nyc]

NPP, is it possible you can give a reading of 30min CCI and CCIAvg value at any point of time. I am still trying to see whether the discrepency of CCIAvg for 30 minutes between TS8.1 and TS2000i exist or not. From what you described here for Today, it sound very similar to my TS8.1 chart. Also I don't know if you saw jerryz's post about a possible problem in CCIAvg code in 2000i.

I did try to code up your method in TS8.1 code. If you are interested, I can post it this evening. (It is for 8.1, may not work for 2000i.)

Quote from no_pm_please:

The 30 min CCI has moved to overbought, however I see a large spread between the average and the 30 min. CCI. In the past, this usually meant a breakout trade. So if the 5 min. CCI crosses anytime soon, I won't be going short.

 

[no_pm_please]

5 Min CCI crossed below average and 30 min is in overbought. I'll track this trade, but won't be putting money on it. Stop would be at 1312.00

Short at 1310.25

If stopped out, this will be the last short of the day since the stop point is above Friday's high.

 

[no_pm_please]

Quote from ww_nyc:

NPP, is it possible you can give a reading of 30min CCI and CCIAvg value at any point of time. I am still trying to see whether the discrepency of CCIAvg for 30 minutes between TS8.1 and TS2000i exist or not. From what you described here for Today, it sound very similar to my TS8.1 chart. Also I don't know if you saw jerryz's post about a possible problem in CCIAvg code in 2000i.

I did try to code up your method in TS8.1 code. If you are interested, I can post it this evening. (It is for 8.1, may not work for 2000i.)

As of the 9am CT bar I have 30 min CCI at 100.65 and 30 min. Ave CCI at -6.55.

If you have some code even in 8.1 I'd love to work with it. My attempts have been poor. I can translate the code to 2000i and check the trades with my statements for March. If they match I'll post the 2000i code and run a backtest until 1999. Then, I'll see what I can do to improve it....I've got tons of ideas.

 

[no_pm_please]

Trade was stopped out. Since we're probably done I'll summarize:

1 trade -1.75

Total trades this month 1
Total profit this month -1.75

 

[mechtrader41]

@floortradr542

I lost a lot of money Year after Year by doing the same stuff, I try to keep you from....i can`t count the times i thought I got it now and, hey I have just to do this and that making lot of money, never had the skills and the energy to do boring testing stuff....

You will be confronted with the next issue if trading a strategy, you don`t know nothing about, at least the historical drawdown, consecutive losers, %win...

If you don`t choose the right positionsize, means, the % to risk per trade, you are likely to lose even with a winning strategy. If you risk 10-15% per trade, what do you think will happen if you get some nice 10 consecutive losers.....?

Of course, any backtest of a strategy says only a probabilty what CAN happen, but trading is thinking in probabilities, nothing else. If you try trading a Strategy you dont`t know nothing about, I would not suggest to risk more than 1-2% per trade. Do you have the accountsize to risk just 1% per trade, or anybody else here?
Probably not.

If trading anything unknown you are in BIG trouble to lose your whole account in very short time, by not understanding this facts about money management. Of course 1-2% is always the most save size, but has only a small Growthrate, so you NEED to know some facts about the Strategy to apply some better fitting risk%...

The only 2 ways to get it are

1.)You papertrade this thing for 1 year and above

2.)you do some backtest

Michael

 

[jerryz]

NPP, do you agree with my analysis?

Quote from jerryz:

this is what's happening in TS2000i.

to replicate TS2000i's 30min CCI average exactly, you have to use this code:

Plot1(cci(20) of data2,"CCI",red);
Plot2(average(plot1,10),"CCIAvg",green);

strangely, however, Plot2 is not plotting the 10 period average. if you calculate the numbers in Excel, your averages will not match Plot2.

to plot the 10 period average that does match Excel, you have to use this code:

value1 = cci(20) of data2;
Plot1(value1,"CCI",red);
Plot2(average(value1,10),"CCIAvg",green);

these two pieces of code should plot the same thing, yet they are not. does anyone know what's going on?

 

[no_pm_please]

Quote from jerryz:

NPP, do you agree with my analysis?

I haven't tried your variant. I coded the first part and yes, your analysis is correct.

 

[ww_nyc]

9am CT is 10am Eastern time. On my chart 30Min CCI is 102.14 and CCIAvg -88.41. As I said our CCI are close enough (considering different data source may have slightly different bar data.) But CCIAvg are just not close at all.

NPP, if you look at your 30Min CCI chart, look backward from 9am CT, I don't think you will see any points that are close to as high -6.55. Most are around -80 to -195. I think the 30Min CCIAvg in 2000i may not be right.

Quote from no_pm_please:

As of the 9am CT bar I have 30 min CCI at 100.65 and 30 min. Ave CCI at -6.55.

If you have some code even in 8.1 I'd love to work with it. My attempts have been poor. I can translate the code to 2000i and check the trades with my statements for March. If they match I'll post the 2000i code and run a backtest until 1999. Then, I'll see what I can do to improve it....I've got tons of ideas.