Es profit on 1/4 point can it be done? Part II

[WD40]

yawn

Be a man. Go give it a try.
Why are you coming back here to seek ET bozo's permission?
You don't have confidence in your scheme?
You have doubts in your theory?
You are looking for peer acceptance?

Assuming the average daily range of ES is about 10 points. At $50 a point, the most you can lose in one day is around $500. That is assuming you bought at the high of the day and you freeze, and held on to it until near the low of the day before bailing out.

So go ahead, set aside $500 play money. Go play with the market for one day, or until the end of $500, whichever comes first.

Rig yourself with Camtasia to record the action. Don't forget to do voice recording of what is on your mind as the market unfolds, so that you can do a review at the end of the day.

Have fun. You will have the best time of your life for a mere $500!

(of course don't pick a 60pt day to try your experiment, but you won't know which day is a 60pt day, right?)

 

[omniscient]

Quote from saxon22:

Now, I presume that I am in number 1 position on both sides of the q and will get filled once the market goes through 1401.50 and then 1401.75. Am i looking at it correctly, or is there something else that I am missing???

you won't be first in line. no matter what the current market price is, there are always resting orders on either side for several points (i.e. much more than the five deep everyone sees). i uploaded a spreadsheet illustrating what happens.

you'll have your market price (1400 in the spreadsheet) and then five on each side (so 1400.25 to 1401.25 offers and 1399.75 to 1398.75 bids). then you have resting orders extending well above and below viewable depth.

if you can put an order 1 tick outside of viewable depth, anyone can do it.

also, to really make scalping a viable method, retail brokers won't be able to compete with leasing a seat.

hth

 

[traderdon56]

Repeat from last year's thread...."The only thing that will tell you for sure if this will work is for you to fund a live account and hit the buy button a few times".

Another repeat from last year..."How many losses are you willing to take before you throw in the towel"? You MUST answer that question at some point, much better to answer it sooner than later.

Weren't you talking about using a 1 point stop?, You're going to need 5 wins to every loss to make money. After your first loss, we're not going to see how tough you are, we're going to see how big your onions are.

Using your example, if you really think the market is going up 6 ticks, just jump in with a market order and bracketed exit for 1 tick gain, don't sit and watch the market go up 6 ticks and then hope it moves to and then through your buy and sell points. More often than not, it will simply move to your buy price, fill it and then drop right back down. The market is much smarter than we are.

Good luck~

 

[tortoise]

Quote from CFerret:

I meant that it does not immediately fill on the bid (assuming a buy) even if price sits on one price for some time, cause most of the time you're not th first in queue and at the same time if price stalls at one price it by itself means that market is quiet and liquidity is lower than in volatile periods.

Of course you get filled almost instantly on the ask, sometimes on the bid too, it happens, but in my experience less often than not and you most likely are filled at ask.

As for me I don't care, cause I hunt for at least several points and consider my main mistake in trading that I don't let profits run enough, but for strategy like yours it is absolutely fatal.

And yes, of course NQ is much thinner, but it's second thickest e-mini contract and if you trade say 10 contracts on it I don't think it's harder to fill than 100 contracts on ES.

The problem with your strategy is IMO the fact that in reality fills on bid are relatively rare, at least my experience shows so.

On your place I'd better search for some real method which doesn't depend too much on poor fills and a little slippage and learn it with simulator until you become consistently profitable. There are lots and lots of such methods absolutely for free on the net. Reason is simple: they require a lot of screen time, shortly - a lot of WORK and most people who want to trade at the same time don't want to work, they want to get rich quick.

It's banal advice, but IMO the only way to really succeed. And you won't bother with all these bid/ask issues and try to compete with black boxes which anyway have better connection, better comissions... Better everything except for one thing: no human brain which is able to learn, distinguish "beautiful" pattern from "ugly" and there lies your edge.

Best wishes
Janis

this is a great post

 

[saxon22]

Quote from omniscient:

you won't be first in line. no matter what the current market price is, there are always resting orders on either side for several points (i.e. much more than the five deep everyone sees). i uploaded a spreadsheet illustrating what happens.

you'll have your market price (1400 in the spreadsheet) and then five on each side (so 1400.25 to 1401.25 offers and 1399.75 to 1398.75 bids). then you have resting orders extending well above and below viewable depth.

if you can put an order 1 tick outside of viewable depth, anyone can do it.

also, to really make scalping a viable method, retail brokers won't be able to compete with leasing a seat.

hth

I was not aware that the depth of orders is that extensive. This makes my idea null and void. Thank you for illustrating the fallacy of this method so eloquently. Thank you.

 

[Tums]

Quote from omniscient:

you won't be first in line. no matter what the current market price is, there are always resting orders on either side for several points (i.e. much more than the five deep everyone sees). i uploaded a spreadsheet illustrating what happens.

you'll have your market price (1400 in the spreadsheet) and then five on each side (so 1400.25 to 1401.25 offers and 1399.75 to 1398.75 bids). then you have resting orders extending well above and below viewable depth.

if you can put an order 1 tick outside of viewable depth, anyone can do it.

also, to really make scalping a viable method, retail brokers won't be able to compete with leasing a seat.

hth

not to mention the hidden orders that are invisibly lurking everywhere.

 

[saxon22]

Quote from optioncoach:

The reason you have not gotten the 1/4 point out of your head is that all newbies think they are smarter than the thousands of traders who have come before them and came up with something no one else has though of. You are essentially claiming to trade like a market maker but you will get eaten alive.



Let this be a rude wake-up call and have respect for those who came before you. Trading ES is difficult and you are not going to jump in as a newbie and market make with large players swinging the market and ignoring what the ES is actually doing.


Best of luck to you... [/B]

The reason that I have not gotten this out of my head is that I am a thinking logical individual and given the limited information that I possess, the method should work. However, since I lack real live experience I must rely on other people's experiences to formulate my conclusions ergo this thread. If I was under the impression that I was not smarter than average person I would only aspire to work at a local 7/11 joint instead of trying trading for living.
Moreover, I do respect those who came before me and have been successful at trading. However, as a thinking person, I should be allowed to present my ideas on trading no mater how ridiculous some ET members think they are.
Nevertheless, I thank you for taking your time and enlightening me trading wise.

 

[saxon22]

Quote from WD40:

yawn

Be a man. Go give it a try.
Why are you coming back here to seek ET bozo's permission?
You don't have confidence in your scheme?
You have doubts in your theory?
You are looking for peer acceptance?

Assuming the average daily range of ES is about 10 points. At $50 a point, the most you can lose in one day is around $500. That is assuming you bought at the high of the day and you freeze, and held on to it until near the low of the day before bailing out.

So go ahead, set aside $500 play money. Go play with the market for one day, or until the end of $500, whichever comes first.

Rig yourself with Camtasia to record the action. Don't forget to do voice recording of what is on your mind as the market unfolds, so that you can do a review at the end of the day.

Have fun. You will have the best time of your life for a mere $500!

(of course don't pick a 60pt day to try your experiment, but you won't know which day is a 60pt day, right?)

Be a man. Go give it a try. - Being a man has nothing to do with it.


Why are you coming back here to seek ET bozo's permission? - I am just asking questions. Nothing more.


You don't have confidence in your scheme? No I do not.

You have doubts in your theory? yes I do.

You are looking for peer acceptance? Not since Junior H.S.


I am not seeking thrills or excitement. I want to minimize my losses and maximize my victories.

As a matter of fact, I should be "on line" by the end of this month. Naturally, I will not experiment with my money and will use entirely different system to try to make $$$$. Will see how it goes.

 

[saxon22]

Quote from swingnfade:

Just walk away Saxon22, you have a gamblers mindset and will get slaughtered like a pig no matter what method you choose, the method is actually a very small part of trading but it takes many years for those who are not natural traders to finally accept this truth

Funny, I have been to perhaps 12 different casinos in my life and was never attracted to it. I lost perhaps $40 in total. Be that as it may. You know better.

Since you are in a giving mood. Let me dispense my advise to you: try not to judge other people after skimming through a couple of their threads. Also, please, find yourself another thread to post since it is clear that you have nothing but venom to contribute. On my side of things, i have just familiarized myself with "ignore button". Guess who is #1 on that q?

 

[WD40]

Quote from saxon22:

Be a man. Go give it a try. - Being a man has nothing to do with it.
Why are you coming back here to seek ET bozo's permission? - I am just asking questions. Nothing more.
You don't have confidence in your scheme? No I do not.
You have doubts in your theory? yes I do.
You are looking for peer acceptance? Not since Junior H.S.
I am not seeking thrills or excitement. I want to minimize my losses and maximize my victories.
As a matter of fact, I should be "on line" by the end of this month. Naturally, I will not experiment with my money and will use entirely different system to try to make $$$$. Will see how it goes.

I am not trying to incite you to be reckless.
I do not wish you to lose money, not one person who ever replied to you (in both threads) wished you to lose money, not even $1.
If you read between the lines again, you might sense that I am being pyscastic. My hidden message is really the same as swingnfade -- Walk away. But I know you won't like that message, and I don't think you will listen. Most of all, I am not qualified to tell anybody to walk away.

I, like many others on this board, do like to see you come back with a journal when you go live. Despite all odds, we like to hear a story of success. Especially when someone who can think out of the box and beat the establishment.