Es profit on 1/4 point can it be done? Part II
- Thread starter saxon22
- Start date
Quote from saxon22:
Well folks, after reading and educating myself as much as I could I moved to the last stage of my pre-trading education: Live action on a sim. A couple of weeks ago, I forked over a tidy sum to e signal fellows and finally was playing with real life data. On the brokerage side, after analyzing several vendors, I went for Open e Cry platform. Today was the big day because I decided to try my old crusty system of scalping ES for 1/4 of a point. I fought the market all day and ....at the end of the afternoon, the account showed 9812.50 in the positive. Of course around 3300 of it is fees to the broker but still that leaves a nice amount to take home. It was done on a 10 lot with 50.000 in capital. Enclosed, please find XLS file confirming the numbers. I realize that doing it on a sim is not the same as doing it with real money but the mechanics are the same.
(T28 - I am coming for your $$$$$$$ even if they are inferior Australian Dollars.
Like most said on here, the simulator and real live trading have nothing in common on how you get fills. When I traded in Chicago at a big prop firm they had new guys start on a TT simulator. They all did well and put up good numbers on huge volume. When they went live they got crushed.....they couldnt believe the difference between the two. The Simulator is WAY TOO generous on fills. My advice...trade one lots when you go live...that way you wont get hurt financially trying to adjust to the difference.
Personally I think trading ES for 1 tick is a fools game. You'd better have very low commissions. If you get a chance read the article in yesterdays WSJ on page B5. Great article on how algorithmic trading is making it impossible for scalpers to succeed.
Some strategies when applied on a different trading instrument with very similar like price action...
Sometimes produce completely different trading results although both may be profitable.
Simply, sometimes its more profitable to trade ES instead of SP depending upon the strategy even when inputing commission costs.
Mark
==========================Quote from saxon22:
Well folks, after reading and educating myself as much as I could I moved to the last stage of my pre-trading education: Live action on a sim.
It was done on a 10 lot with 50.000 in capital. Enclosed, please find XLS file confirming the numbers. I realize that doing it on a sim is not the same as doing it with real money but the mechanics are the same.
(T28 - I am coming for your $$$$$$$ even if they are inferior Australian Dollars.
Saxon;
Have you considered the next step in sim-papertrading???
A no fee entry trading contest, Its more pressure somewhat like real time trading, but downside is limited.
Traders made some good cautions here;
actually respectfully disagree ''the mechanics are the same''
No becaue your/everyones mind & emotions for sure know the difference between simulation & 1 real time $70,000 ES contract.
As certainly as a bank teller knows the difference between momopoly money & real dollars.
Actually still do papertrade some, including sometimes before i put on an ES emini trade ;
helps keep me out of inferor trades, helps avoid trading too frequently, about the only easy trading there is, paper trading.
<b>saxon</b>, good work in exploring possibilites. I can absolutely assure you that concept will not work. The ES does not regularly fill longs on the bid or shorts on the ask.
Countless times per week I have 10 - 20 lots sitting in que while those prices are hit, no fills. Price action must trade into or thru the order for fills to happen. Your sim model doesn't reflect that, because the software writer assumes no one would try such a concept.
Lastly, if it were that easy to make money micro-scalping the ES, many of us here would be turning 500 contracts at a time in the exact-same manner. There is a reason we are not... it doesn't happen that way in real life
Countless times per week I have 10 - 20 lots sitting in que while those prices are hit, no fills. Price action must trade into or thru the order for fills to happen. Your sim model doesn't reflect that, because the software writer assumes no one would try such a concept.
Lastly, if it were that easy to make money micro-scalping the ES, many of us here would be turning 500 contracts at a time in the exact-same manner. There is a reason we are not... it doesn't happen that way in real life
Thank you guys for taking your time to post and once again educate me. Yesterday's exercise was an experiment of sort. I wanted to see if this kind of extreme scalping would be profitable using a sim with real data feed... and it was. Even considering commission, it did generate very handsome results. Now, I was not aware that in real, REAL trading world it takes a lot longer to get filled.The sim behaved realistically that is, sometimes I would get filled quickly for the whole 10 contracts and sometimes it would be 1,1,1,5,2 or similar combination, and then from time to time I would wait in the q. and not get filled at all. This is why I was under the impression that the Open E Cry sim was rather precise in mirroring what would happen if this whole exercise was for real. From all the response I have received so far, I gather that there is no such thing as scalping ES for 1/4 and making a profit. 
Quote from CFerret:
Saxon:
Sorry to disappoint you, but it seems that your spreadsheet doesn't include commissions and the more important point: in my live trading I don't see often my limits being filled immediately and on the bid price (assuming a buy). I trade NQ but don't think ES is much different.
Of course if I'm wrong and it happens more often than not, good for you.
If it is not immediate, then how long does it take? also NQ is a different (smaller and thus less liquid) animal than ES.