ES premarket

[raker]

Quote from Neoxx:

Thanks for the response, Raker.

Am curious, why do you opt for Dax in the morning?... liquidity issues?

Hi Neoxx,

I trade the Dax in the morning our time (U.K.) from 8.00am till 12.00 midday then the U.S. market opens at 2.30pm , which I trade up until 4.30pm all U.K. time .

No particular reason why I trade Dax in the morning , its just that I like to dabble in both indicies but the ES is the main one but because of the timezone of being in England it allows me to play both . I dont usually play the ES after 11.30am(U.S. time).

best regards...

 

[brownsfan019]

Quote from raker:

I dont usually play the ES after 11.30am(U.S. time).

I would agree w/ that comment. IMO you can find some nice moves in the ES in pre-market and up till 11:30am EST or so. After that, a lunchtime congestion is not surprising and you might see some afternoon moves.

Way too easy to give $ back IMO.

 

[rolextrader]

OP, you're getting many conflicting answers here and trying to incorporate all or some of them won't be beneficial. IMO, Brownsfan makes the most sense. Good luck.

 

[raker]

Quote from BoyBrutus:

Hi raker

Can you give a detailed example of this, why do they need to hedge?

TIA

Hi BoyBrutus,

This is just a rough example . An institution may have say a dozen different portfolio managers , who wish to execute various trades the following day ,some want to buy and add to exsisting portfolios , others wish to sell to trim exsisting portfolios or go to cash , whatever the reason does not matter , fact remains that there are x amount of shares to buy that day and x amount to sell . Either at the institution execution desk or at the brokerage they will seperate the buys and sells into baskets and see how they correlate with each other . If they correlate pretty well together, that means that the buyside list will act as a hedge for the sell side list and so the market impact costs of trading both baskets can be minimized, all this is done through algorithmic programs.
If the two baskets are heavily weighted in favour of say the buy side list or just one side exsists then the ES futures can be used to hedge as long as its tracking error is low compared to the S&P 500.
THat is where we get a heads up in pre-market ES . The gap between the previous days close 4.00pm (stock market close) and the current ES price as it gets widder it suggests that instituions are buying the futures to hedge against the upcoming stock buy orders . The bigger the gap suggests there is a greater imballance between the buy and sell side lists .

Obviously this is just a basic example and there are many different reasons why the ES does what it does in pre-market ...

 

[millionaire7]

Hi guys,

Is a 5min chart is good enough for premarket ES or does it need to be more than 5mins.

Thanks for any reply.

 

[BoyBrutus]

Quote from raker:

Hi BoyBrutus,

This is just a rough example . An institution may have say a dozen different portfolio managers

Obviously this is just a basic example and there are many different reasons why the ES does what it does in pre-market ...

Thank you raker

 

[vertigo3]

very interesting, raker
thank you for the explanation.

 

[just21]

Pre,pre market the indication in the es is 1242-1242.75 when the spy closed at 125.9. I guess the market does not like the nationalisation.

 

[vertigo3]

just21,
I usually don't even look at the markets until Monday morning (after they have already been trading for several hours)
How do you get a pre-pre-open for ES?

 

[Neoxx]

Pholeuon, congratulations on a successful transition to futures and I'm glad your system is working well for you.

Personally, I wouldn't dream of telling someone how to trade ES after I'd only been doing it for 8 months. I'd also know that there were a plethora of successful strategies in use. One man's poison is another man's pearl.

I'm using a variation of a friend's tried-and-tested strategy so don't really see the utility in more testing. And I see papertrading as taking a step backwards - I learn exponentially more with the genuine article.

And to be honest, I think a lot of simple yet successful 'strategies' are just common sense, so the only edge I plan on cultivating is me as the trader. My edge will be my judgement, experience and intuition, all of which improve with every trade.

On a parting note, again lets assume a 50% win rate, 1.8 av win, 0.7 av loss, (with the occasional larger loss being compensated by occasional larger wins) and $5/round-turn commission, that's net +0.45/trade. 5 trades/day and that's over 2 ES points/day. At 1 contract per $5000 account equity, that's 2.25%/day. Who wouldn't undergo death by a thousand cuts to be reincarnated as something bigger and brighter?