ES: patterns & rockets

14:40 Begin

B1 1000.75 1001.50 +0.75
(14:59) (15:01)

Buy break up. Bail when down vol more than up vol in next 2 1min bars.
[hindsight: could have squeezed another pt - but basically sound exit]

B1 1002.00 1002.00 +0.00
(15:11) (15:16)

Buy break of prev. hi. No follow through.
[hindsight: good exit]

15:20 Quit


Postmortem:

Ended the day +ve, but not sure it was worth the risk of trading at all. Volume awful again & range pathetic. Looking at trades on chart afterwards - they don't look strong.

60min chart starting to look interesting - possible topping formation developing after the near month long up channel.



Summary:
(corrected)

Day:
- RT: 2 (1 win, 0 lose, 1 scratch)
- PL: +0.75

Month:
- RT: 14 (8 winner, 5 losers, 1 scratch)
- PL: -6.00
 

Attachments

9:30 Begin

9:45 leave screen

9:55 Return & missed rocket - doh!

S1 1006.00 1007.00 -1.00
(10:33) (10:42)

Sell break lower. Stopped out.
[hindsight: why wait for stop?]

S1 1005.25 1004.75 +0.50
(11:06)

Sell double top. Exit on low vol bar.

S1 1000.75 1000.25 +0.50
(11:33)

Sell reversal on 1min chart/continuation on 3min. Snatch small profit?!?!?

S1 908.50 1002.75 -4.25
(11:43) (12:01)

Sell break of LoD. Crushed on a reversal spike.
[hindsight: b.o. reversed a little & then sat at around 10000 for a while on low vol. I should have exited here - plent of chances - and accepted the loss. The move, when it came didn't give my time to get my stop in.]

12:15 Quit

15:00 Return

B1 1004.75 1002.00 -2.75
(15:33) (16:06)

Buy brk above cong. Stopped out.

16:10 Quit

Postmortem:

Trade 2:
Entry: sound
Exit:
reasons to exit: low vol bar, recent lack of follow through generally; reasons to stay: TICK, TRIN, acc/dis were all saying hang short, no while bars on 3min. ?

Trade 4:
Entry: strong sup around here so a more convincing bo was needed - another pt, better volume -> don't enter
Exit:
bo failed on entry bar -> consider exit
5 low vol bars -> exit, the move is over - another move is coming which could be in either direction & is likely to be big due to duration of low vol.


Lesson of the day:

1. Be more selective about taking b.o. trades - look at bigger picture.

2. When a b.o. stalls and volume drops, the move is over.
- Profit or loss, the move is over - unless there's a v. good reason to stay, exit.
- A good reason might be that b.o made a good move, no S/R barrier to further profit, move confirmed by new hi/lo on acc/dis & TICK.
- A good reason is NOT - let's wait and see if it turns around again.

ALWAYS REMEMBER: your fellow trapped b.o. traders are your worst enemy.

I know these lessons to be sound. My mission for the immediate future is to act on them automatically.




Summary:

Day:
- RT: 5 (2 win, 3 lose, 0 scratch)
- PL: +0.75

Month:
- RT: 19 (10 winner, 8 losers, 1 scratch)
- PL: -13.00
 

Attachments

u will never take the emotion out UR TRADING with short term charts....anything under 10 min chart...BAD, VERY BAD....100 % IS ACHIEVABLE, BUT WHO BE STUPID ENOUGH TO TALK ABOUT IT, WHEN IT WORKS EVERYTIME..
 
If u r setting stop closer than avg/4 pts. u r asking for it...get off 1 , 2, 3 , 5 min charts and breathe a lot easier....it ain't rocket science and it ain't simple....it takes a few thousand hours studying charts ....not studying forum BS.....if those guys knew their stuff they wouldn't be here, they would be too busy counting their money....so, include me with them...i don't know anything...except short term charts are emotional traps...

DISCIPLINE IS NOT THE ANSWER....CONFIDENCE IS....CREATE CONFIDENCE IN SOMETHING PROVEN OVER AND OVER A FEW HUNDRED TIMES....SAVE YOUR DAILY CHARTS....10 MIN, 15 MIN, AND YES, EVEN SOME 5'S FOR COMPARISON...YES, DEAD CHARTS STILL TALK....

CONFIDENCE IS WHEN U BELIEVE UR SYSTEM IS NEARLY FLAWLESS.....IT IS POSSIBLE TO HAVE A SYSTEM THAT REQUIRES NO EMOTION AND REQUIRES NO DISCIPLINE AND IS NOT A MECHANICAL SYSTEM...2 TRADE SETUPS...1 FOR UP...1 FOR DOWN...STUDY UNTIL U R ALMOST BLIND...AND THEN...STUDY A THOUSAND HOURS MORE...AND THEN STUDY A THOUSAND HOURS MORE...IT IS THERE...NO DISCRETION ALLOWED.....TODAY SHOULD HAVE BEEN DUCK SOUP....WITH QUACKERS.

BEST WISHES
 
AS SORRY AS THIS WEEK LOOKS FROM HERE....IT WAS GREAT...TRADE AFTER TRADE ....NO SCALPING ALLOWED HERE..EMOTIONAL TRAP.
 
Quote from porgie:


IT IS POSSIBLE TO HAVE A SYSTEM THAT REQUIRES NO EMOTION AND REQUIRES NO DISCIPLINE AND IS NOT A MECHANICAL SYSTEM...2 TRADE SETUPS...1 FOR UP...1 FOR DOWN...
More...

Tell me more
 
9:30 Begin

Tired from late night last night, and hurting from yesterday's loss - so might not trade today - but watching.

S1 1000.25 1000.25 +0.00
(11:30) (11:40)

Sell break of prev. lo. Exit after a couple of low volume bars. I was aware that this was also bk of longer term trend line - so being careful. Time of day was not in favour of b.o. either.

12:00 Quit


Postmortem:

The real b.o. happened about 3 bars later & was worth about 3 pts. However, since the exits was according to my stated mission, I have to be happy with it. It may be that experience will give me a better handle on just how low the vol. can go before I bail - or it may just be that I have to accept missing some.

NB - 1.25 stop would have kept me in for 3 pts; 3pt trailing would have kept me in for the rest of the day, down to 92ish.

Summary:

Day:
- RT: 1 (0 win, 0 lose, 1 scratch)
- PL: +0.00

Month:
- RT: 20 (10 winner, 8 losers, 2 scratch)
- PL: -13.00
 

Attachments

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