ES: patterns & rockets

9:30 Begin

9:35 Long rocket signal on open but not convinced that I should take it, given the gap. Wait.

9:45 Have to leave screen
10:10 Return

10:15 Short rocket signal but heading back into congestion - do nothing.
[hindsight: rocket failed]

10:50 Small uptrend since short rocket failure but volume low, so looking for a move down again.

10:52 Indicators say long rocket but volume not there - do nothing.

11:07 Looks to be coiling up now, but with mid-day doldrums approaching, there might be little to play for until PM. TRIN coiling up too - around a central value of around -400

11:15 zzzzz... Quit

14:50 Return

Missed a nice b.o. (up) around 12:15 that I'd probably have taken.

I'm noticing these periods (12:00-12:15, 14:45-15:00) when volume dries up & very narrow (often =0) range (open-close rather than hi-lo) prior to a b.o. (or range expansion) (Jack Hershey talks a lot about these). They are very pronounced today.

15:00 Approaching resistance at yesterday's HoD (91.25). Volume dropping. MACDhist almost flat while price trending up. All this suggests 91ish will hold. On the other hand acc/dis looks strong.

15:10 B.O. of 91 with good volume. Heading for fib@94ish.

15:26 B.O. has retraced to 91.25 sup on low volume & looks set for next leg up. One thing that is very clear over tha last couple of hours is that all the volume is on the up side moves. On the neg side MACD hist is not confirming the advance.

15:44 Possible double top developing - but we're getting near end of day.

15:52 Yep, double top would have been good for a point.

15:53 Quit

No trades today :)
 

Attachments

9:30 Begin watching but can't logon to Jtrader.

10:00 Logged on, but losing price feed from time to time. Don't trust the connection to trade just yet.

10:05 Price made a lower low; acc/dis hasn't; TICK has.

10:10 Still JTrdaer problems.

10:20 Price has made another low - this time acc/dis confirms. JTrader still dodgy.

10:37 Jtrader feed seems more reliable now.

11:44 Grinding relentlessly lower. There ought to be a way to enter this but not on basis of rockets or patterns/b.o. on 3 min chart. Can't even find a decent flag.

S1 996.50 996.25 +0.25
(11:57)

Sold the flag. Bailed when price seemed to get stuck.
[hindsight: hanging in with a 0.5 stop would have got me to my original target of +1.25]

Summary:

Day:
- RT: 1 (1 winner, 0 losers, 0 scratch)
- PL: +0.25

Month:
- RT: 15 (10 winner, 5 losers, 1 scratch)
- PL: -1.00
 

Attachments

9:30 Begin

S1 976.75 974.75 +2.00
(10:20) (10:23)

Sell boreak of LoD. Exit on resistance. This turned into a rocket just after I entered so I think I should have held on - we'll see.
[hindsight: good decision to exit]

10:33 Lower lows on MACDhist, TICK & acc/dis all support the downtrend developing.

S1 975.50 974.75 +0.75
(10:43) (10:50)

Sell the little flag. Bailed on lack of volume - didn't look like taking out the previous low. Also mid-day approaching.
[hindsight: good decision to exit]

10:56 acc/dis supporting a move lower but TICK and MACDhist diverging - looks like the morning move might over.

11:00 Have to leave screen.

11:40 Return

Rocket in progress - looking for a way in.

B1 983.25 983.50 +0.25
(11:45)

11.45 Buy pullback in rocket - guided by 1min chart. Exit on lack of follow through & continued low volume.
[hindsight: price continued up after a few bars (88+). I was right to exit because I think it could have gone either way, but I should have considered re-entering when 3.75 was broken. Need to see this one on the 1 minute chart]

12:00 Quit



15:18 Return

15:20 Little bear flag developing - perhaps

15:38 Flag spoiled & price might spiked up with volume spike.

15:55 Quit



Summary:

Day:
- RT: 3 (3 winner, 0 losers, 0 scratch)
- PL: +3.00

Month:
- RT: 18 (13 winner, 5 losers, 1 scratch)
- PL: +2.00
 

Attachments

Third trade mentions 1 minute chart, which is attached. It shows potential trades based on low volume, narrow range bars. I intend to add these to my trading plan, to be used mostly as a way of getting into the trend on the 3 min chart - using these triggers on the 1min chart.
 
9:46 Begin

Short rocket in progress - about to enter when price collapsed 2pts to support (80-81), so sitting tight & watching. 80.50 would complete a double top.

10:00 Double top complete but Qcharts lagging so missed it.

10:41 Lots of low volume bars on the 1 minute chart here. I will play the b.o. if it comes, but only in trend continuation - i.e. down.

S1 981.00 980.75 +0.25
(11:01)

Sell the break of low vol bars, guided by 1 min chart. No follow through.

11:13 Extremely low volume & tight range for a while now.

S1 980.25 982.00 -1.75 (ouch!)
(11:14)

As above for entry. Caught out by sharp turnaround. Perhaps I need to rethink these trades.

11:24 Possible double bot. coming up @ 3.75 - but time of day not good for a b.o.

S1 980.25 980.25 0.00
(11:53)

Sell break of congestion - bail when no b.o.

12:00 Quit

15:06 Return

Wow - missed a good trend. Interesting it didn't make a rocket on 3 minute chart, but did on the 5 minute. In any case we seem to be consolidating now.

S1 984.50 986.50 -2.00
(15:12)

Sell completion of H&S (a little late). Plenty of opportunity for a cheaper exit here - not pleased with myself.
[hindsight: an earlier entry would have eased the pain a bit]

15:44 Approachinh HoD again (cup&handle?) - but also approaching end of day.

16:00 Quit

Summary:

Day:
- RT: 4 (1 winner, 2 losers, 1 scratch)
- PL: -3.50

Month:
- RT: 22 (14 winner, 7 losers, 2 scratch)
- PL: -1.50



Postmortem on the use of 1 minute chart.
This didn't work out so well for me today. Looking back over the trades I see that none of them were in clear trends - although my plan was to use these trades only to re-enter 3min trends. There are examples in the 1min chart where such trades would have worked, in the trendy bit of the mid-day that I missed.
 

Attachments

9:30 Begin

Gap up and 60min chart attempting b.o. up from double bot. - coincides with fib res @ 94.

10:02 Missed the b.o. @ 94.5 because it was 2 quick & I was too greedy with lmt order. I can usually catch it on the DOME as it breaks but I'm using dial up today so not so responsive. Looking to get long.

B1 996.50 997.75 +1.25
(10:14)

Buy b.o. of little flag on 1min chart preceded by v.low volume bar. Exit when volume disappeared.
[hindsight: good exit]

10:34 Little H&S developing on 1min chart but I won't trade this.
10:36 3min chart starting to cook up a flag - which I will trade if it breaks to the up side.

? 1000 in sight - perhaps the round number will work its magic ?

10:50 H&S completed. Short rocket threatening.
10:51 Short rocket signaled. Looking at 1min chart for entry, as a little flag is developing there.

S1 992.75 994.50 -1.75
(10:56)

Sold break of flag on 1min as entry to rocket. Rocket failed & stopped out.

B1 996.00 994.00 -2.00
(11:16)

Buy break out of cong. Stopped out.
[hindsight: lots of opportunity to get out cheap - even at small profit! Too much hope involved in managing this one]

S1 991.75 986.25 +5.50
(12:45) (14:37)

Sell break down below cong. What happened next was a bit of a botch. Price reversed & I didn't exit. I then allowed it to go past my 2pt stp to an (eventual) d.down of 3.50. Not very disciplined, but I was encouraged by low vol. mid-day drift & o'head res. I then put a stop just above this high & let it ride. I came within a whisker of being stopped out but price eventaully turned around again & broke out to the downside - yielding +5.5. It turned into a rocket, and I exited before the exit signal, missing a few (currently 4ish) more points - relief I think. It doesn't say much when my day is turned around by my least well managed trade :)

15:00 Quit


Summary:

Day:
- RT: 4 (2 winner, 2 losers, 0 scratch)
- PL: +3.00

Month:
- RT: 22 (16 winner, 9 losers, 2 scratch)
- PL: +1.50
 

Attachments

9:30 Begin

S1 979.75 982.00 -2.25
(9:41)

Sell the break of the flag. Stopped out.
[hindsight: way too slow to exit here - should have been able to get out for at least 1pt better]

B1 985.50 984.00 -1.50
(9:54)

Buy break up. Stopped out.

B1 986.25 982.75 -3.75
(10:06)

Buy break of resistance - silly boy.

S1 981.75 979.75 +2.00
(10:16)

Sold break of little H&S. Held through bigger stop than normal & exit at resistance.

My demons have returned - 4 trades before 10:30!

10:40 Quit Quit Quit Quit


Summary:

Day:
- RT: 4 (1 winner, 3 losers, 0 scratch)
- PL: -5.50

Month:
- RT: 26 (17 winner, 12 losers, 2 scratch)
- PL: -4.00


Forgive me father for I have sinned:

1. I peeped at (traded off) the 1 minute chart when I thought that no-one was looking.

2. I held a position past my protective stop loss.

3. I harboured unhelpful thoughts about my break even price, when I should have been taking sensible small losses.
 
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