ES: patterns & rockets
- Thread starter 1contract
- Start date
10:00 Begin
S1 997.50 1002.50 -5.00
(10:06) (10:35)
Sell the rocket. Failed utterly to manage this loser. Opportunities to exit include:
- mental stop @ 999.50
- stocs signal @ 1000ish
Reluctance to apply stops is not one of my usual deamons. No excuses - just shoot me!
[hindsight: I should have been cautious entering so near the 998 Fib - but no excuse for hanging on so long - not my finest hour]
B1 1005.25 1003.75 -1.50
(11:16) (11:35)
Buy the b.o of big congestion. Exit on stop.
[hindsight: failed to take cheap (4.75ish) exit on lack of follow through volume.
B1 1005.25 1003.75 -1.50
(11:59) (12:00)
Buy b.o. of triangle. Tried to exit cheaper, but mkt moving too quickly.
12:05 Dinner.
15:10 Return
B1 1006.00 1008.00 +2.00
(15:31) (15:47)
Buy break of HoD (+ve slippage - 6.0 rather than 6.25). Sell as price stalls a bit & volume stops increasing. A bit reluctant to close as these last 1/2hr trends often keep going. Anyway - glad to end with a winner.
[hindsight: good decision to close]
Summary:
Day:
- RT: 4 (1 winner, 3 losers, 0 scratch)
- PL: -6.00
Month:
- RT: 6 (3 winner, 3 losers, 0 scratch)
- PL: -4.25
Postmortem trade 1:
The first point to note here is that the real failure was more psych discipline than analysis. However, I revisit the analysis to see what mistakes were made. If I can see that the analysis SHOULD have got me out - it will help to reinforce my discipline.
- entry at fib resistance was suspect
- very next bar was higher hi & higher lo than entry bar
- next 2 bars were inside
- all 3 had relatively low volume
These 3 points give plenty of justification to get out.
- next bar breaks hi of prev 3 - this is a BIG BELL - GET OUT (-2.00)
Need I go on ...
Post mortem trade 2:
- bar after b.o bar had higher hi & lo, but failed to close higher than the b.o. - cause to worry
- next 2 bars failed to make higher hi - and lo volume
So where's the b.o? Could have got out for -0.50 here.
Post mortem trade 3:
I was looking at b.o. from sloping line - but I see this line as insignificant now. I should have made no trade here.
Post mortem trade 4:
As a b.o. trade, I couldn't have improved this much - unless I can find a reason to anticipate and enter a few bars earlier. Some speculations on this annotated on the chart.
S1 997.50 1002.50 -5.00
(10:06) (10:35)
Sell the rocket. Failed utterly to manage this loser. Opportunities to exit include:
- mental stop @ 999.50
- stocs signal @ 1000ish
Reluctance to apply stops is not one of my usual deamons. No excuses - just shoot me!
[hindsight: I should have been cautious entering so near the 998 Fib - but no excuse for hanging on so long - not my finest hour]
B1 1005.25 1003.75 -1.50
(11:16) (11:35)
Buy the b.o of big congestion. Exit on stop.
[hindsight: failed to take cheap (4.75ish) exit on lack of follow through volume.
B1 1005.25 1003.75 -1.50
(11:59) (12:00)
Buy b.o. of triangle. Tried to exit cheaper, but mkt moving too quickly.
12:05 Dinner.
15:10 Return
B1 1006.00 1008.00 +2.00
(15:31) (15:47)
Buy break of HoD (+ve slippage - 6.0 rather than 6.25). Sell as price stalls a bit & volume stops increasing. A bit reluctant to close as these last 1/2hr trends often keep going. Anyway - glad to end with a winner.
[hindsight: good decision to close]
Summary:
Day:
- RT: 4 (1 winner, 3 losers, 0 scratch)
- PL: -6.00
Month:
- RT: 6 (3 winner, 3 losers, 0 scratch)
- PL: -4.25
Postmortem trade 1:
The first point to note here is that the real failure was more psych discipline than analysis. However, I revisit the analysis to see what mistakes were made. If I can see that the analysis SHOULD have got me out - it will help to reinforce my discipline.
- entry at fib resistance was suspect
- very next bar was higher hi & higher lo than entry bar
- next 2 bars were inside
- all 3 had relatively low volume
These 3 points give plenty of justification to get out.
- next bar breaks hi of prev 3 - this is a BIG BELL - GET OUT (-2.00)
Need I go on ...
Post mortem trade 2:
- bar after b.o bar had higher hi & lo, but failed to close higher than the b.o. - cause to worry
- next 2 bars failed to make higher hi - and lo volume
So where's the b.o? Could have got out for -0.50 here.
Post mortem trade 3:
I was looking at b.o. from sloping line - but I see this line as insignificant now. I should have made no trade here.
Post mortem trade 4:
As a b.o. trade, I couldn't have improved this much - unless I can find a reason to anticipate and enter a few bars earlier. Some speculations on this annotated on the chart.
9:30 Begin
9:45 Short rocket signal but has already moved quite a bit so hold off for now - also, heading into congestion.
10:02 QChart problems - grrr
10:11 Approaching long rocket signal & yesterday's HoD
B1 1009.00 1007.75 -1.25
(10:21) (10:31)
Entered rocket on signal - also break of yesterday hi. Exit on stoc exit signal.
S1 1003.75 1003.00 +0.75
(10:52) (10:54)
Sell rocket on signal. Exit on buying at resistance.
[hindsight: premature exit. Volume during the little reversal was low - this should have allowed me to get back in again at better price - doh!]
11:02 Short rocket still in progress - can I find a reason to re-enter? Resistance line 97-98.
11:10 TICK showing possible div at this little bottom - reversal might be coming.
B1 1001.50 1002.00 +0.50
(11:15) (11:17)
Buy the reversal b.o. Chickened out of my original target of +1.50.
[hindsight: right decision]
11:45 Quit for the day - other things to do
I will be away for the rest of the week and possibly not back until mid next week.
Summary:
Day:
- RT: 3 (2 winner, 1 losers, 0 scratch)
- PL: 0.00
Month:
- RT: 9 (5 winner, 4 losers, 0 scratch)
- PL: -4.25
9:45 Short rocket signal but has already moved quite a bit so hold off for now - also, heading into congestion.
10:02 QChart problems - grrr
10:11 Approaching long rocket signal & yesterday's HoD
B1 1009.00 1007.75 -1.25
(10:21) (10:31)
Entered rocket on signal - also break of yesterday hi. Exit on stoc exit signal.
S1 1003.75 1003.00 +0.75
(10:52) (10:54)
Sell rocket on signal. Exit on buying at resistance.
[hindsight: premature exit. Volume during the little reversal was low - this should have allowed me to get back in again at better price - doh!]
11:02 Short rocket still in progress - can I find a reason to re-enter? Resistance line 97-98.
11:10 TICK showing possible div at this little bottom - reversal might be coming.
B1 1001.50 1002.00 +0.50
(11:15) (11:17)
Buy the reversal b.o. Chickened out of my original target of +1.50.
[hindsight: right decision]
11:45 Quit for the day - other things to do
I will be away for the rest of the week and possibly not back until mid next week.
Summary:
Day:
- RT: 3 (2 winner, 1 losers, 0 scratch)
- PL: 0.00
Month:
- RT: 9 (5 winner, 4 losers, 0 scratch)
- PL: -4.25
I have looked trough your charts and I have seen that you enter mostly on break outs when trying to jump on a rocket. So when you have a rocket signal you wait until you have a break out of a prior high or low. Take a look at anticipation and enter the market when a rocket signal occurs before the break out of a prior high. If break out fails then you have it much easier for washing. If it breaks out.. you have less slippage. In my case I try to anticipate on the one minute chart.
hope that helps a little
sunseeker
hope that helps a little
sunseeker
It's funny you should mention this as I was just making a similar/related observation. My thoughts were that when a rocket & b.o. coincides, I need to be more careful. I can't give so much breathing room to the rocket because if the b.o. fail there will be trapped b.o. traders wanting out - so causing the rocket to fail.
Thanks,
1c
I have been using jacks strategy also to trade rockets. I have found that when stochs are >70 and macd is greater than .3, look to get in on the next 1 min macd xover or next 1 min macd bounce off of 0. this is very mechanical(good for the nerves) and helped me get rid of the initial drawdowns of learning the rocket. let me know if this helps or not.
jc
jc
Tell ya what I use Q Charts as well and T&S is a must to see where the buying and sellling interest is and the nice thing about Q Charts is the ability to filter to any trade size lot. So try setting your parameters for one quote box to 50 lot trades only and see where the juice is. I also see use more than one T&S quote box for example filter to 5 lot trades and just the ask price so you can get a feel of what direction the tape is moving and use this with correlating to indicators certainly helps especially on recognizing those head fakes.
Best of Luck
gw
Best of Luck
gw
gwnorth,
I have T&S in my workspace - flitered to show only trades bigger than 10. I have bid & ask trades coloured pink & pale blue - with low & high trades coloured red & bright blue. I am still in look&learn mode with it. It certainly gives me information about what the mkt is doing RIGHT NOW - not sure yet how to make use of this.
I have T&S in my workspace - flitered to show only trades bigger than 10. I have bid & ask trades coloured pink & pale blue - with low & high trades coloured red & bright blue. I am still in look&learn mode with it. It certainly gives me information about what the mkt is doing RIGHT NOW - not sure yet how to make use of this.
Not much trading today as I have other things to do.
14:30 Begin
S1 1009.25 1008.25 +1.00
Sold the break down - still not sure how I managed to get only +1 from this spike
15:30 Quit
Day:
- RT: 1 (1 winner, 0 losers, 0 scratch)
- PL: +1.00
Month:
- RT: 10 (6 winner, 4 losers, 0 scratch)
- PL: -3.25
14:30 Begin
S1 1009.25 1008.25 +1.00
Sold the break down - still not sure how I managed to get only +1 from this spike
15:30 Quit
Day:
- RT: 1 (1 winner, 0 losers, 0 scratch)
- PL: +1.00
Month:
- RT: 10 (6 winner, 4 losers, 0 scratch)
- PL: -3.25