ES: patterns & rockets

No trading yesterday

9:30 Begin

10:01 Stayed out of b.down because of news time :o(
Now indicators are saying short rocket, but reluctant to enter so soon after such a fast move - before some kind of retracement. Do nothing.
[hindsight: good decision]

11:03 Price stuck in 3pt range for the last hr - volume decreasing.

B1 966.00 66.75 +0.75
(11:29) (11:40)

Bought b.up of adam&eve - bailed on lack of follow through. I particularly didn't like low volume & lower highs on MACD hist.
[hindsight: The b.up failed & price re-entered congestion - it might move up again but happy enough to have extracted a profit]

12:01 there's a rumbly in my tumbly ...

After close: nice uptrend in PM - missed potential 4+ points on rockets

Summary:

Day:
- RT: 1 (1 winner, 0 losers, 0 scratch)
- Net: 0.75

Month:
- RT: 1 (1 winner, 0 losers, 0 scratch)
- Net: 0.75
 

Attachments

9:30 Begin

B1 986.00 87.50 +1.50
(9:42) (10:00)

Entered rocket as per signal. Ignored exit signal (84.50 @ 9:45)because of favourable TICK & volume (sitting through 1.75 drawdown). Another entry signal, then exit without signal because of fib resistance.
[hindsight: although it worked out this time, I am not proud of ignoring the first exit signal - getting out before second exit signal was a good decision though]

12:00 988.50 Resistance holding

12:09 Quit for dinner

14:48 Return

15:10 Just made new hi (of day) - but volume low, acc/dis no new hi. Tempted to go short - but it's not in my plan!
[hindsight: short would have been good for a few pts]

15:28 MACD < -0.4, no signal from stocs yet

15:55 quit

Summary:

Day:
- RT: 1 (1 winner, 0 losers, 0 scratch)
- Net: +1.50

Month:
- RT: 2 (2 winner, 0 losers, 0 scratch)
- Net: +2.25
 

Attachments

No trades today - but thoughts while watching the mkt.

9:45 Begin

Rocket signal on open - but not significant because of gap? Do nothing.

9:56 Lots of strength - with volume. Breaking up throug fib line
(98.25) - 1000 Might be real res though (round number).

10:25 Still powering ahead: TICK, TRIN, ACC/DIS & Stoch still
favourable. MACD hist mostly neg for last 30 mins.

10:36 Flaws appearing in trend: stoch<80, divergence on MACD hist,
decreasing volume, TICK pierced prev low, acc/dis breaking uptrend. Expect consolidation.

11:00 Trend tries to re-establish.

11:16 Breaks previous high (4.25) - but quickly sold down again. Do
nothing.

11:25 Long wicks going up into BBs. Tempted to sell here - but it's
not in my plan.

11:45 Dinner

14:00 Return to screen

14:45 Keeps popping out (up) of congestion triangle - as I adjust the upper line it retreats a little & then pops up again. There is no clean b.o. just a developing trend(?) - upside volume is good. No point going long now though until it clears hi@4.75.

14:53 hi@4.75 broken, but price promptly back down again.

15:45 Quit

No trades today that fit my plan - and no trades taken.

It has been suggested by PM that it is ok to take rockets at the open if they are still signaling after ES syncs with cash (around 15mins). I must bear this in mind in the future.
 

Attachments

Hey, it may be crazy but charts don't lie.

I get in trouble everytime I don't believe what I'm seeing.


Definetly some leftover 4th of July today!
 

Attachments

Quote from 1contract:

... looking for 2-3 points profit per trade with stop of 1-2. The main problems ...

1. Overtrading
2. I'm too slow to identify (or to act on) failed breakouts.
when I should have exited for +/- 0.25 when the trade didn't follow through.
3. I'm often too quick to take profit. I will snatch +1.00 - out of relief - instead of waiting for 2-3 points.
4. I'm too fond of the 1 minute chart.
More...
I suffered every one of your symptoms in the past.
#1 must be stopped - use strict entry , exit and stop adjustment RULES and NEVER listen to the noise in your head.
#2 again strict rules not "opinions" that come up at the moment.
#3 same as #2.
#4 close the 1 minute chart - use nothing less than 3 minutes help avoid over trading.
If you'd like more help during live trading send me PM
Best of Luck
 
Hi IN2WIN,

#1: I think I have overtrading licked, by sticking only to the trades in my plan (pattern b.o. & rocket). Taking no trades today is something of an achievement in that respect - even though the result is a lot of screen watching & no profit.

#2: Still working on getting out of failures quickly. There are 2 parts: i) recognise failure; ii) get out. Both are difficult, but often (ii) is more difficult!

#3: Still working on letting winners run ... haven't had much opportunity for practice lately.

#4: 1min chart has gone

I think that keeping this journal is helping me stick to my plan. From sticking to the plan I find that I am more focused on my method. I feel that this is opening up the opportunity for me to learn & develop the method. Hopefully profits will follow.
 
1-

Sounds like you've put a lot of thought into and are introducing even more constructive methodology to your "Plan"


I don't particularly trade VSTM patterns well myself. Today, was no exception. I bought all day long, and sold out these positions when coming to a double top that looked pivitol. When I first started intraday trading a few years ago. I did much the same thing you are journalizing now. That is to say, I just sat there bearing witness to a never ending ascention of market.

You tell yourself that you did -"The Right" thing that you stuck to your plan and didn't trade all day, because there simply wasn't a setup for you to take.

However, that uneasy feeling that you get when market finally closes and you didn't make one freak'n penny from such a move.....

Well, that doubt thats mess'n with you shouldn't be ignored.
You are right to feel that something is wrong.

Your plan must somehow incorporate the ability to enter into this type of market.

A few pointers that helped me overcome the wonderment of a VSM -(Very. Strong. Market)

On Thurs. market made that huge drop down to I believe 1228 on the Nq e-mini. Consult your other charts for whatever market you watch during the day. Once it hit that trendline, found support, it bounced hard off that number. Then toward the very end of market and in afterhours trading the market once again, attempted to nose-dive towards that number yet Again!

It failed to make it lower. A Strong double bottom was showing its horns. In fact on a chart that I posted from that day, we were building a nice Descending Triangle as a result of that steep drop.

So, this morning, 6:00am PST. I open my workspaces up to see that not only have we not gone lower. The bottoms held, but more importantly, we've made great upward price movement.

The Futures in the overnight session have crossed above there moving average envelopes and have already went through a few cycles of the Stoch/RSI indicator and price is still moving up.

This my friend is the first tell-tale sign of a VSM forming.

Cannot be ignored and must be played as such on the very next available signal to go long.

Look for a simple Divergence in Price to indicator on the first move through resist. On light or heavy volume...doesnt matter,
if market is moving up you need to be on the freak'n train. Otherwise, what happens is what happen to you.

You will sit there until it reaches the Next level then something else won't be just quite right, then again it takes off, and of course by that time you had better just forget about it until after a break because its gone too far to....

You get the picture.

My .009 cents... adjusted for slippage...


Keep up the good work. Sounds to me like you are building a good foundation.


-momo
 
Hi 1contract,

I am still looking for the market to act rational<g> But since big money is pushing things the trend is holding. Since expectations are the market return will be higher than any fixed return money is going in stocks.

I bot some OEX ITM puts this morning.

I suspect the next 6months the gains to be more difficult?

NAS daily
http://www.in-god-we-trust.com/charts/0707nas.png
 
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