ES: patterns & rockets

Trades for 26/06/03

10:10 Begin

971-72 is fib S/R in 2 different timeframes so anticipating support here.

10:35 Rocket (short) signal. Hovering over resistance so do nothing.
[hindsight: good decision]

10:59 Threatened a long rocket @10:57 (978.5), which would also complete a double bot, but retreated before bar closed. Starting to look like congestion developing in the range 971-979 - so unlikely to take any trades in this range.

11:34 BO double bot (78.5). Do nothing - wait to see if rocket develops - i.e. stoc signal already in place so wait for MACD hist close >0.4.
[hindsight: bad decision the double bot reversal was good]
Interestingly, if I had traded from 5min chart, I would have had a long rocket signal @980 (just after rev) for a few points

13:00 Dinner

15:00 Return

S1 982.75 82.00 +0.75
(15:11) (15:32)

Entered the b.down of the little 3min H&S. Held on through 1.5 drawdown & back to snatch 0.75 profit - a good bad-shot.


Summary:

Day:
- RT: 1 (1 winners, 0 losers, 0 scratch)
- Net: +0.75

Week:
- RT: 8 (4 winners, 4 losers, 1 scratch)
- Net: -2.00
 

Attachments

Pre-open:
Expecting resistance around 988 - previous swing high + fib from 2 different time frames.

10:35 Begin

Missed a short rocket signal around 9:50 - but it would have failed for small gain.

Missed a long rocket signal around 10:24 (984-85) - it is still in progress but approaching resistance @988. Maybe no trades this AM.

B1 986.25 86.50 +0.25
(10:54) (10.56)

Buy BO of little flag, with target of +1.25. Bailed when the BO bar didn't close above flag hi.
[hindsight: initial target met on next bar]

11:20 Has hit & bounced off o'head fib resistance. Divergence showing on TICK & MACD hist - but not add/dis - so maybe reversal coming up.

S1 984.00 83.75 +0.25
(11:54) (11:57)
Sell b.down of top formation, with target of +1.75. Bailed on lack of volume on BO & next bar.
[hindsight: 0.5 stop would have kept me in for more profit, but this wasn't a clean b.o. so happy enough with exit.]

12:00 Quit for the day

Summary:

Day:
- RT: 2 (2 winners, 0 losers, 0 scratch)
- Net: +0.50

Week:
- RT: 10 (6 winners, 4 losers, 1 scratch)
- Net: -1.50
 
1contract,

If you are trying to trade rockets, then I think you could benefit from removing all the extra indicators from your charts.

More indicators -> more signals -> harder to focus -> second-guessing -> missed entries -> frustration -> bad entries -> LOST MONEY -> MORE FRUSTRATION. From my limited experience.

Also I think the 5m chart gives you a better perspective on the trend, and you can fine tune it by occasionally glancing at the 1m. This means staying longer in the trades and larger profits. The 3m, while being halfway between 1m and 5m, doesn't match the benefits of two separate timeframes.

Just my 2 cents - trying to help. If you think this is out of line, disregard it.

vorzo
 
THERE is a very serious issue that you must consider if you want to trade these continuation patterns successfully..... actually if you want to trade any pattern..... I have been trading the "short skirt " trade as described by linda radschke and something i have noticed is that where i once used to have a target of 2 points up until about 6 months ago... i now use a target of 1.25 points.... if i hold on longer it seems like a crapshoot and many trimes i give my profit all back... my logic is that there are probably 5x as many people watching what i am and the market has become like a game of musical chairs.
 
Once again, thanks to everyone for their interest comments.

jj -
There's a lot on this chart i don't understand.

vorzo -
In (trying to) trading rockets I don't take signals from the additional indicators. To the extent that the trades are discretionary though, the discretion must be based on something - so I am looking at S/R and divergences on a few other indicators. With respect to 5min vs. 3min charts - you may be right, I will continue to monitor both timeframes for a while, and may consider switching at some time in the future. I think it's important though to try to apply what I'm doing now consistently for a while before making any changes. I intend to review the journal after a period of time (1month?) and then make changes (if nec'y) - and perhaps do this iteratively.

larry -
I have had exactly the same experience, 2-3 BOs became 1.25 pts, became traps.
 
1contract,

I didn't have a current chart of my own to post. I just posted that chart because I assumed the user probably caught the big moves last week.

My personal choice of methods is the "envelope" created using moving averages. Here is a link where I discuss it and posted charts. It can be used any interval, but for trading I like the 2min chart.

Here's the link, it's the black charts in the middle of forum. Look for the 2min NDX chart.


http://forum.esignal.com/showthread.php?s=&threadid=2708

I wouldn't enter an ES trade if I didn't expect at least a 2pt move. The larger moves usually come after the market see's some momentum and direction more clearly. Market psychology is just as important IMO for timing a trade.....something very hard to understand at times.

~j
 
Here is an example of my 2min chart. You can use any interval.
This chart clearly shows how the envelope is formed and the signals it creates by crossovers of price and the other MA's

I trade the direction of the 40 ma (blueline)

~j
 

Attachments

You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top