ES PAST Price Action help me with this chart

W

wiesman02

Okay, so I've been tweaking my 930est - 1100est ES strategy a bit. And one thing that has stumped me is the following ES chart. I'm having trouble identifying, and trading immediate strength off the open.

I trade the ES profitably, but I'm constantly researching for more edges. And strength off the open with no pullback has always stumped me. If there is something I'm missing, due help me out :)

Help me figure out how I could have predicted or at least traded the open of 6/11/10. Attached in the link you'll find a 3 min, 5 min, and 60 min charts. It is the SPY but 1) i didnt save the data in this format for ES during that time, and 2) its easier to link, and 3) a tick or two difference btwn ES and SPY doesn't affect my overall strategy

Why am I going back to 2010 ? I look at many many years of data in my research for sustained edges.

3 min chart:

http://www.barchart.com/chart.php?s...r=&submitted=1&fpage=&txtDate=06/10/2010#jump

5 min chart:

http://www.barchart.com/chart.php?s...r=&submitted=1&fpage=&txtDate=06/10/2010#jump

60 min chart:

http://www.barchart.com/chart.php?s...r=&submitted=1&fpage=&txtDate=06/15/2010#jump


edit: I like to use market context to help me. For example, like identifying short squeezes or seeing weakness on a 60 min chart. But i dont see anything that could have helped me here
 
It opens gapped down. Gaps are all about emotional reactions. Buyers step into the gap immediately, thrilled to get what they perceive as a bargain. That's a signal for a "gap and go" scenario. As an intraday price action trader, I'd look to buy a break of the opening 5-min bar, or I'd watch a 1-min chart for a "hook" setup (looking to enter via a buy stop trailed as the 1-min pullback bars close, as long as the opening range low holds as support).
 
Quote from wiesman02:

I trade the ES profitably, but I'm constantly researching for more edges. And strength off the open with no pullback has always stumped me. If there is something I'm missing, due help me out :)
More...

Actually, you have one, but the bar interval is too long to show it. Change this to a 1m interval and you'll see your pullback in the 4th, 5th, and 6th minutes. Enter on the 7th anywhere from .30 to .40.
 
Quote from NoDoji:

It opens gapped down. Gaps are all about emotional reactions. Buyers step into the gap immediately, thrilled to get what they perceive as a bargain. That's a signal for a "gap and go" scenario. As an intraday price action trader, I'd look to buy a break of the opening 5-min bar, or I'd watch a 1-min chart for a "hook" setup (looking to enter via a buy stop trailed as the 1-min pullback bars close, as long as the opening range low holds as support).
More...

I guess the problem I have is, I look for 3 specific components in order to place trades. I'm very accurate with this method.

I look for the market to exhibit

1) strength or weakness in a specific direction,
2) a buy / short trigger (a trigger identifies supply side or demand side exhaustion), and 3) a buy entry (a wide ranged green or red bar closing at high or lows)

My system always identifies exhaustion of PA before I go long / short. The problem I have is that these moves do not exhert this type of behavior. And I do not like missing these moves. BUT, I have decided, after past advice you gave me, that I will NOT look at a 1 min chart. 3 min's is as low as I will go.
 
Quote from wiesman02:
----ES strategy....
----one thing that has stumped....
----immediate strength off the open.
----with no pullback....
----something I'm missing....
----do help me....
----3 min, 5 min, and 60 min charts.
----2010 ?
More...
1) With the benefit and clarity of hindsight, when there is a lot more green than red with your candlesticks, it should be easier to buy than sell. You can try to use the "hook" set-up when the candle "flips" from one color to another, provided that there is a sufficiently long "wick/tail" on the downside to initiate a "long" trade. :)
2) Be careful with using data from too far in the past that does not properly represent the current environment. Volatility and price action were "different" in 2010 compared to now. :eek:
3) The use of too many time frames may cause you to hesitate when all of them don't "line up" the way you want. :(
4) You may want to force yourself to trade more aggressively during the first 30 minutes of the session if you believe there's a "good chance" that the market can make it's daily low or high in that interval while avoiding range-bound trade the remainder of the day. :cool:
 
Quote from wiesman02:

I'll show an example how I trade. Maybe this could even help some newbies out. This is my one and only example: Merry Christmas :)
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I trade similar and would've entered at the same place using a 1-min chart.

I look for a specific demonstration of strength or weakness and that's the trigger. The 1-min chart is then used for my entry.

I tried a 3-min chart for a few weeks back in 2010 and personally found it troublesome; however when I day traded stocks, the 3-min chart was my main chart.
 
Quote from wiesman02:

Okay, so I've been tweaking my 930est - 1100est ES strategy a bit. And one thing that has stumped me is the following ES chart. I'm having trouble identifying, and trading immediate strength off the open.

I trade the ES profitably, but I'm constantly researching for more edges. And strength off the open with no pullback has always stumped me. If there is something I'm missing, due help me out :)

Help me figure out how I could have predicted or at least traded the open of 6/11/10. Attached in the link you'll find a 3 min, 5 min, and 60 min charts. It is the SPY but 1) i didnt save the data in this format for ES during that time, and 2) its easier to link, and 3) a tick or two difference btwn ES and SPY doesn't affect my overall strategy

Why am I going back to 2010 ? I look at many many years of data in my research for sustained edges.

3 min chart:

http://www.barchart.com/chart.php?s...r=&submitted=1&fpage=&txtDate=06/10/2010#jump

5 min chart:

http://www.barchart.com/chart.php?s...r=&submitted=1&fpage=&txtDate=06/10/2010#jump

60 min chart:

http://www.barchart.com/chart.php?s...r=&submitted=1&fpage=&txtDate=06/15/2010#jump


edit: I like to use market context to help me. For example, like identifying short squeezes or seeing weakness on a 60 min chart. But i dont see anything that could have helped me here
More...



Hi wiseman

With my wonderful hindsight :) what jumps out immediately is that you have a nice impulse swing A-B from the day before so price in that context retraces overnight back to around the 78.6 fib level, 108 area and into that area of structure and rejects quite strongly. the 1min tf would have got you quite close to the action.more than enough reason to get long

The other area of interest that we could have projected for price to react would have been 108.60 but because it traded thru overnight in a thin market our next projection would have been 108

So, it isnt the fact that the market had strength off the open, but more of were price is or was
 

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