ES Overlap

Direction........................ Short
Target Amt..................... 1.00
This Trade...................... -3.25 (Entry 1108.25-time stop 1111.50)
Cumulative..................... -4.50
WinRate......................... not available
Avg Win/Avg Loss Ratio.... not available
P/L Ratio........................ not available
Kelly Value...................... not available

Comment: See you Tuesday 01/06/04 :) (see pre trade report the night before for direction and levels for the OPEN of the RTH session(8:30cst))


Michael B.
 
ESH04 RTH SESSION O/H/L/C 1113.25/1121.75/1111.75/1119.75 up today

TOMORROWS RTH(8:30cst-15:15cst)OPEN TRADE DIRECTION: SHORT

Target Adjustment Levels (if we open at the below prices then adjust your 1 point target to the new level):

1135.25=new target 2.25
1133.25=new target 2.00
1131.25=new target 1.75
1129.50=new target 1.50
1127.50=new target 1.25
1119.75= yesterdays close
1108.00=new target 1.25
1106.00=new target 1.50
1104.25=new target 1.75
1102.25=new target 2.00
1100.25=new target 2.25

Comment: Each advancement of a level raises the probability of a successfull outcome.
 
I feel I owe an explanation to those of you following the short life of this journal.

I just do not believe in this method anymore. Should I continue to post and trade it?......I must believe in what I am doing and have the discipline to follow through. I cannot in good conscience continue with a clear, clean heart.

The 90% plus winrate that I experienced earlier has ended....and is necessary for this method to be profitable, as it utilizes a bet sizing method.

I have had a few PM's that thanked me for some details that people learned regardless of the lackluster performance of the first 4 trades of this system. I never really quite understood why Contra-open worked. In the last 2 weeks of ES trading the buyers have been on a mission and choppiness and overlap is absent. Being that we started the first 2 days in a low volume environment consoled me to be patient and disciplined. But after the new year this system continues to fail. For us to recover with such a low target would require a run of consecutive winning trades, which I believe will not take place. The 4 trading days here in the journal does not represent the months that this system has worked for me. It has NEVER experienced these consecutive losses. I need to recognize that the market is trending strongly and contra open directional bias does not function in this environment.

The lesson is to wait for confirmation instead of forecasting. This system can work together with a lagging indicator on tick bars....I must research this or somebody else can take over.

Trading is like finding a good fit. I like the below items:
  • High probability entry with a small target
  • Short duration in the the trade utilizing a time stop
  • High volume of contracts per ticket building with an anti-martingale bet sizing strategy.
All you need to do is to take a few points out of the market daily.

Before I post another journal I need to be more prepared for the responsibility that it brings and the dedication required. I never dreamed anybody would trade this along side me.....There were a few...and if you want to continue to trade or tweak this system....feel free.

Therefore I am requesting that the moderators close this thread. Again, thank you for all the kind words......(remember you promised not to yell at me)


Michael B.
 
Quote from ElectricSavant:

The 90% plus winrate that I experienced earlier has ended....
Michael B.
More...

on with the never ending quest for the next best thing, c u.
 
Electric -

Why close this journal? I think this journal can provide a lot of insight to people trying to trade mechanical systems in that it shows how easy it is to be convinced that something "works" when it really doesn't.

Please don't take this as a slam against you - it's not. But this is a perfect example of finding something that has "worked" in the past only to find that it doesn't work anymore - and then trying to explain why. And then moving on to something else that "works" in the present, again only to find that it doesn't work anymore...and so on, and so on.

Attempting to explain "why" it doesn't work anymore just dig you deeper into the hole of thinking that you can make adjustments for that "why" and then make it "work" again. It's a nasty cycle.

Fooled by randomness.
 
Quah....

I know and your correct. How would I continue this journal? I don't trade it anymore, and its execution sensitive.

Any suggestions?

Michael B.



Quote from Quah:

Electric -

Why close this journal? I think this journal can provide a lot of insight to people trying to trade mechanical systems in that it shows how easy it is to be convinced that something "works" when it really doesn't.

Please don't take this as a slam against you - it's not. But this is a perfect example of finding something that has "worked" in the past only to find that it doesn't work anymore - and then trying to explain why. And then moving on to something else that "works" in the present, again only to find that it doesn't work anymore...and so on, and so on.

Attempting to explain "why" it doesn't work anymore just dig you deeper into the hole of thinking that you can make adjustments for that "why" and then make it "work" again. It's a nasty cycle.

Fooled by randomness.
More...
 
Oh, I didn't mean continue the journal as in continue posting the method and it's results - I meant just don't close this thread because it is ripe for discussion of "systems" and "methods" in general - and the (IMO) farce of backtesting, etc., and how something that "worked" in the past usually doesn't work anymore as soon as you start using it.

And most importantly how easy it is to fool yourself into thinking that something works (and you know why) and suddenly when it stops "working" that you also know why, and that you can go on and "adjust" for that, etc., etc., etc.....
 
Quote from ElectricSavant:



I need to recognize that the market is trending strongly and contra open directional bias does not function in this environment.

Yes it does. You made a beginner's mistake when you combined sound momentum based setup with hard ass ovescientified trigger based on time of a day ( opening ).
Walter
More...
 
I suspect this to be true. I just do not know how to enter. Perhaps you could help......

Michael B.


Quote from Walther:

Quote from ElectricSavant:



I need to recognize that the market is trending strongly and contra open directional bias does not function in this environment.

Yes it does. You made a beginner's mistake when you combined sound momentum based setup with hard ass ovescientified trigger based on time of a day ( opening ).
Walter
More...
More...
 
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