ES OTM Put Option Performance During Flash Crash

S

SailorG

I am considering put protection to put a floor under my long term trading position around a 20% pullback on ES. Was anyone holding puts during '08 or 2010, 2015 'flash crashes'? How did they behave? What type of performance should I expect from them?

Thank you!
 
Why not look for yourself? See how different techniques would have performed by using historic data. If you have TOS, you can use OnDemand to examine SPX option trades. I don't think OnDemand is supporting Futures options yet, but the SPX should give an idea. -- Your question is too general for a concise response. (strikes, duration, what specifically are you guarding against, etc); Or use OptionVue or O.N.E. which will be a bit easier than TOS. -- OptionVue supports futures options, but is not user friendly.
 
SailorG said:
considering put protection to put a floor under my long term trading position
More...

Unless you know when the correction is coming, this can become very expensive :banghead:. I use delta neutral puts the way you're advocating, for ER's and I'm in and out in a day or two.

If you're really concerned about a major correction within, say, the next year, try sourcing out a very liquid, decent valuations, gold stock or streamer as a hedge. :D
 
20% out 1yr puts are roughly the 1850 puts... will cost about 27 per option...(x underlying contract size).

Depending on how quickly we drop... and when, that put will be between 50 and 180 when it's ATM. 50 when it has about 1 month left, 180 when it drops tomorrow.

With a flash crash, do you intend to sell it before the market recovers or do you want the puts in place to cover for a possible margin call?

Anyway, it all depends on how far out you want to buy protection... but 1 year out will cost you about 1% of current spot. And maybe you should buy 2x position exposure so when it's ATM it actually moves 1:1 with 50 delta.
 
recession2016 said:
might be better off holding vix futures or gold futures
More...

It depends on what he wants the position for... if it's a floor on ES trading, then for margin reasons an ES put would be better...

When you hold VIX or gold, I doubt those will cover any margin reqs... and if OP is worried about intraday margin calls and liquidation by the broker they are no good.
 
Thanks JackRab, That is about what I am looking at. It is primarily to cover a margin call. I am ultimately looking at safer ways to hold leverage on a longer time horizon. A 1% cost seems reasonable as a way to lever up without being wiped out.
 
I should add that my system would have me out before a 20% drop. I am interested at that 20% protection point in case of a real black swan event that takes us to the 20% circuit breaker with no trading along the way. This is not something that has happened in ES, just something that could.
 
Which broker are you using? And do you have a portfolio margin account?

I'm not sure how that put will be valued if there's no trading and no market in it... if you have a low rated broker they likely will not value the put correctly with the new spot level and you might be screwed anyway.

Also, you might have to roll the option position when ES moves up... and maybe keep it at minimum half a year out... otherwise it might not kick in in time to cover anything.

That rolling will be more costly as well...

Maybe you should be rolling constantly, every week... even when going down. That way your mainly protected for the 10-20% instant drop with a flash crash...
 
IB and yes I do. I probably would do a shorter time duration as they are a bit cheaper in the long run. The biggest problem with this strategy is that I know exactly what I want it to do, but it's behavior is not that precisely predictable. Any other thoughts on downside protection strategies? I'm all ears:)
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top