ES NQ RTY Market Profile

ET180 · Mar 18, 2021

My 2 cents...

NQ's drop was stopped today right at last Friday's low. Absent further negative catalyst, I suspect it will try to test the 12882 level tonight / tomorrow. Would be bullish if it can finish tomorrow above it and get back into this week's range.

The ES has some minor technical damage. It just made a new ATH a few days ago so nothing major yet. Might be able to get to 3925 tomorrow. Bullish if it closes above.

The most amount of technical damage was done to RTY in my opinion. Once it broke below the pre-FOMC overnight low, it really took off to the downside. Would be bullish if it can close above 2300, but somewhere around 2290 might be the best hope for end of day tomorrow.

stockpredictor · Mar 18, 2021

Is there a backtest to these 'if close above X' sort of things?

SunTrader · Mar 18, 2021

I'd say it will likely be awfully hard for RTY to get back to and close near, at and especially above 2300.

A lot of contracts traded in the last two hours from just above (2320) and into the closing low today.

ET180 · Mar 18, 2021

stockpredictor said:
Is there a backtest to these 'if close above X' sort of things?

Good question. I've been thinking about how to do that...won't be easy, but I'll see if I can come up with something. For now, I'm going off the work of James Dalton who talks about balance areas / areas of acceptance and rejection.

https://tradingriot.com/market-profile/

SunTrader said:
I'd say it will likely be awfully hard for RTY to get back to and close near, at and especially above 2300.

A lot of contracts traded in the last two hours from just above (2320) and into the closing low today.

Agree. Russell looks the worst of the 3. Only thing going for it is that without a major downward catalyst like today, single-prints usually lead to retests.

SunTrader · Mar 18, 2021

ET180 said:
...

Agree. Russell looks the worst of the 3. Only thing going for it is that without a major downward catalyst like today, single-prints usually lead to retests.

Only single prints I see, on 1 hour chart, are for the most part are in the upper part of the 3pm (EDT) bar. Got a whole lotta positions in between here and there to get through.

We'll see.

stockpredictor · Mar 18, 2021

ET180 said:
Good question. I've been thinking about how to do that...won't be easy, but I'll see if I can come up with something. For now, I'm going off the work of James Dalton who talks about balance areas / areas of acceptance and rejection.

https://tradingriot.com/market-profile/

Agree. Russell looks the worst of the 3. Only thing going for it is that without a major downward catalyst like today, single-prints usually lead to retests.

There are a decent amount of market profile users and related concepts. I suspect there has been information posted somewhere on the topic, just gotta hunt it down.

geth03 · Mar 19, 2021

i, too, read daltons market profile books and also have a few of his courses.
what he emphasizes is, that market profile is a way of organizing data, not a trading system. it shows the auction process.
one study, contacted by Donald L. Jones, concluded that there is no day to day correlation. the most benefit from that concept is the multiday market profile, i.e. if you see multiple days of profiles as one, they tend to give more information.

i did a manual backtest with levels derived from the MP, to see if price bounced off (rejected) previous levels. i could not find any level to be consistend. personally, i do not see any benefit from market profile, other than the naked point of control or naked high volume node if multiple days overlap and price retest that level after a breakout.