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ES NQ Futures Trading
- Thread starter Jahajee
- Start date
Quote from mTrader09:
Overnight:
sell short NQU9 @ 1497.50 limit
Currently at 1488.25
Important SPX S/R levels for the next two sessions are 956 and 932. Breakout of this range leads to new targets - breakout above to 970 or below to 912.
Looking at crude dropping to 60/62, CLQ9 contract
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Missed NQU9 overnight short entry by 1 point.
CANCEL sell short NQU9 @ 1497.50 limit
CLQ9 dropped 1.50 overnight session
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rather directionless lethargic day ...
WE WILL BE TRADING AGGRESSIVELY SHORT NEXT WEEK... unless the market melts. But, several other have been noting the momentum divergences that point to a drop, soon. Don't know if this will be a resumption of the bear market, or a pullback in the early stages of a new bull market. I suspect the former.
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Friday, June 12, 2009
Market Commentary as of Friday, June 12, 2009
As you can see in the charts below, starting with the left hand side, the rising S&P-500 Cash Index has been accompanied with lower and lower directional momentum, and thus creating a "bearish divergence" with the SPX.
In the right hand side chart, we show two proprietary modified Breadth (Advance Decline) data subgraphs. The longer term sub-graph (SP1) shows a modified cum A/D line superimposed with its sigma channels. The lower subgraph, MoMo, is a short-term A/D Oscillator. Notice the long-term vs short-term are also in a very pronounced "bearish divergence" pattern.
THIS TECHNICAL ANOMALY WILL NOT LAST FOREVER. It will resolve itself sooner than later. What is currently unknown is that the proper catalyst for the upcoming reversal.
If you are LONG, watch your trades very closely. If you plan to STAY LONG, start looking for some portfolio insurance (O-T-M Index /ETF Puts).
WE WILL BE TRADING AGGRESSIVELY SHORT NEXT WEEK... unless the market melts. But, several other have been noting the momentum divergences that point to a drop, soon. Don't know if this will be a resumption of the bear market, or a pullback in the early stages of a new bull market. I suspect the former.
---------------------------------------
Friday, June 12, 2009
Market Commentary as of Friday, June 12, 2009
As you can see in the charts below, starting with the left hand side, the rising S&P-500 Cash Index has been accompanied with lower and lower directional momentum, and thus creating a "bearish divergence" with the SPX.
In the right hand side chart, we show two proprietary modified Breadth (Advance Decline) data subgraphs. The longer term sub-graph (SP1) shows a modified cum A/D line superimposed with its sigma channels. The lower subgraph, MoMo, is a short-term A/D Oscillator. Notice the long-term vs short-term are also in a very pronounced "bearish divergence" pattern.
THIS TECHNICAL ANOMALY WILL NOT LAST FOREVER. It will resolve itself sooner than later. What is currently unknown is that the proper catalyst for the upcoming reversal.
If you are LONG, watch your trades very closely. If you plan to STAY LONG, start looking for some portfolio insurance (O-T-M Index /ETF Puts).
Attachments
Looking at some of my favorite tech analysts (not too many), another bearish opinion, with caveat..
Another Ascending Wedge
by Carl Swenlin
June 12, 2009
About six weeks ago the S&P 500 had worked itself into a bearish ascending wedge pattern. In my May 8 article I said that the pattern was "virtually guaranteed" to resolve downward, but that I didn't think the decline would last very long or go very far. As it happens, that is what came to pass. Now we find ourselves in a similar situation, with the 200-EMA resistance preventing the price index from getting to the top of the rising trend channel and putting the top line on the wedge.
As I said in the May 8 article, ascending wedges can resolve to the upside, but I don't see any concrete evidence that would make me think that is going to happen to this particular wedge. The price index has been edging sideways and very slightly higher, and, as you can see on the chart, volume is contracting.
In my analysis I noted that negative divergences are not yet in abundance, but their appearance in the context of a secular bear market is a reminder that the current rally is probably more vulnerable than many think.
Bottom Line: The ascending wedge formation is likely to break downward, but it is a short-term issue at this point. The difficulty the market has had getting above resistance might be overcome if there were a modest correction before another breakout is attempted; however, cracks are beginning to appear in the medium-term picture, and any correction should not be fully embraced as positive until it is clear that it is over.
http://www.decisionpoint.com/ChartSpotliteFiles/090612_aw.html
Another Ascending Wedge
by Carl Swenlin
June 12, 2009
About six weeks ago the S&P 500 had worked itself into a bearish ascending wedge pattern. In my May 8 article I said that the pattern was "virtually guaranteed" to resolve downward, but that I didn't think the decline would last very long or go very far. As it happens, that is what came to pass. Now we find ourselves in a similar situation, with the 200-EMA resistance preventing the price index from getting to the top of the rising trend channel and putting the top line on the wedge.
As I said in the May 8 article, ascending wedges can resolve to the upside, but I don't see any concrete evidence that would make me think that is going to happen to this particular wedge. The price index has been edging sideways and very slightly higher, and, as you can see on the chart, volume is contracting.
In my analysis I noted that negative divergences are not yet in abundance, but their appearance in the context of a secular bear market is a reminder that the current rally is probably more vulnerable than many think.
Bottom Line: The ascending wedge formation is likely to break downward, but it is a short-term issue at this point. The difficulty the market has had getting above resistance might be overcome if there were a modest correction before another breakout is attempted; however, cracks are beginning to appear in the medium-term picture, and any correction should not be fully embraced as positive until it is clear that it is over.
http://www.decisionpoint.com/ChartSpotliteFiles/090612_aw.html