if you have the time strart plotting the rth es markrt profile in a $5 graph paper notebook,do it in 1 pt increments,54..54.25...50..75,would just be one letter on a 1 point graph,a touch of 53.75 would be the box below,in six months or less you will be able to scalp several moves a day,your hand will tell you where the mrkt is going,and the tool works in any liquid market,then you can apply it to multiday time frames, i know you have the time,take a shot for $5,that hand chart will be the only lesson you need in mp
ES Journal Archive (2011)
- Thread starter Buy1Sell2
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I'll give you an opportunity to retract that statement that you've been saying for the last month before I do some actual statistical analysis (which you have not done obviously) and show the ridiculousness of that.
But, some clarification:
* Over what period of time is it 78% profitable?
* Does "profitable" simply mean on a case-by-case basis? In other words, you only care about win percentage, and not about actual profit? So, if I make 1 point 4 days and lose 20 points 1 day, that's okay with you? Just checking if you're looking for overall profitability, or just a strict win percentage.
I'm calling you on this because it's my assertion that nothing consistently over a large enough period of time (for a once-a-day trade, let's call that 6 months to a year) will work. It simply cannot happen. It's the same reason buy and sell programs perform arbitrage, the same reason why the carry trade will not work for very long, the same reason why breakouts fail -- because the market does not allow risk-free gains. If you saw your neighbor making money every time doing the same thing (buying the close, selling the open), then wouldn't you? Suddenly everyone would do it, and suddenly, it wouldn't work any more. And with such a stupidly simple strategy, it's too obvious that people have not considered it, and determined that it won't work.
That being said, I am only guessing based on logic, sound as it may be, and I'm putting myself out there to be ridiculed by you and anyone else if it's determined that it can be profitable. That's the chance I take I guess.
So what will it be -- retract your premise as being true (or seriously clarify it), or be proven wrong by real analysis?
Still short, no worries, tomorrow is hellfire. This is just the show until midnight 
Agree with keeping your chart changes to a minimum, I always simplify. Clean charts. I no longer keep volume on there, get that from other sources (tape). Lots of old S/R lines. Even though apparently the medical field says grayish or beige (?) backgrounds are supposed to be best on the eye, I still keep going back to black background. Anything else throws me off.
Agree with keeping your chart changes to a minimum, I always simplify. Clean charts. I no longer keep volume on there, get that from other sources (tape). Lots of old S/R lines. Even though apparently the medical field says grayish or beige (?) backgrounds are supposed to be best on the eye, I still keep going back to black background. Anything else throws me off.
Quote from satchel:
Still short, no worries, tomorrow is hellfire. This is just the show until midnight
Agree with keeping your chart changes to a minimum, I always simplify. Clean charts. I no longer keep volume on there, get that from other sources (tape). Lots of old S/R lines. Even though apparently the medical field says grayish or beige (?) backgrounds are supposed to be best on the eye, I still keep going back to black background. Anything else throws me off.
And what's your avg satchel?
So if you don't average on a swing, you must have a stop then, no?
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