ES Journal Archive (2011)

[kinggyppo]

GMST there was some divergence on the vix in the last week where the mkt was tanking and the vix did not respond, people were blogging about it, that was a tell. As Rickshaw says there is a lot
of overnight movement leaving scraps sometimes on intraday. When the market gapped up over 1220 there was a high probability of a gap fill.

 

[macho grande]

TRADER QUIZ:

if you won't buy 36, then why not sell it?

 

[satchel]

closing up shop, time is here, maybe i miss something maybe i don't

 

[JoshDance]

thanks letemrun...

Bears getting antsy ... they've been waiting their turn all day..

 

[ammo]

Quote from ammo:

reduce 34.75..reduce 33.75

flat 33.5

 

[satchel]

still wanted my margin short candle burning pyre, awww shucks.

 

[macho grande]

here is where the cinfident bulls get their..squeezed..i love it!

make em 2nd guess!

thats right, not that easy

 

[ammo]

sh 35.5 out 36

 

[satchel]

guys, seriously, margin shorts is the word on the street. hint hint.

 

[trickshot]

Quote from JoshDance:

Is this fundamentally bullish news? I am fundamentally challenged / retarded. Could you interpret please?

The bulls are counting on the European banks to borrow from ECB (long term financing operation supplies unlimited funds @ 1% for a period of 3 years), in theory this is an arbitrage opportunity because most European bonds (including the shorter maturities) yield well over 1% now. Spain sold 3/6 month treasuries for over 5% back in Nov, so thats a pretty huge profit there for those who dare to take it.

Obviously this isnt a risk-free trade because they can still default like Greece, but today's bond auction went very well, so that is probably a good indication of the banks' interest in the program.