ES Journal Archive (2011)

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Quote from volente_00:

I hear there is a drunk guy at the bar in chit chat that has offered 2 months of proof that your opinion is wrong on this subject.
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With all due respect, Volente, I think your last three trades prove my point exactly and that is not counting previous occurrences that have been even worse.

I really don`t know what to say beyond what I said in my two previous posts. You set yourself up to lose with maximum size and win with lesser size often scaling out. You have great winning streaks, but I`m sure those inevitable losses on size eat into your equity curve.

Averaging into a predefined tight zone like you often do is the lesser of two evils and something that may make sense, but you still set yourself up to lose with maximum leverage instead of adding after you`re proven right. Further, I see you often breaking your initial plan when things don`t turn out as you expected, widening your stop and add a lot more only to get stopped out on maximum leverage at the turning point.

I know very well myself how it is possible to have a great winning streak and give it all back on increased leverage.

Now, don`t take this the wrong way, I think you are a great trader and one that I`ve learned a lot from (thank you very much), but I think you could pull home a lot more coin if you learned to take your losses and then with smaller size. Don`t be so stubborn those few times you are wrong. :)

Good trading, sir. :)
 
A few "saved" trades due to moving stops leaves a very strong memory that it may happen again and reverse a loss in the future.

This is how I see many traders adding in to losers and moving stops far from their original. Once you see a small stop tripped and then turn and bounce to the original profit, that event is given the right of way in the brain if the trader is not careful.

I don't believe anyone is fully immune to this and that includes those who have been trading for years. I admit I am prone to it after all these years as well. A couple lucky reversals sets one up for a larger loss down the road.

It took me a while to accept the calculated loss and move on despite market actions AFTER the fact. If the system and process were sound to begin with, losing trades are just part of the business.
 
it's called consol & breakout, git on it, high of day last hour likely then retrace.
saw consolidation saucer bottom end of last week and then a funky jump the shark pattern on lows monday, (remember same jump the shark pattern at highs dec 5/6/7 or so and then we went splat. I can't predict the JTSP just know when it comes it is there to scroo over the most. Sentiment pattern. I'm sure a few gunslingers took home a short position, pick a pain point and get out - I did it yesterday, live to trade another day.

1230 just rang the bell. back to FOMC day price points.

p&L,
 

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