ES Journal Archive (2011)

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I aim for a few thousand a week and have blown a few accounts self-learning trading, so I'm not an expert, but market rotations without H&S & W&M formations are impossible. A pull back is going to give either three prints, the first one staunched in heavy stop territory; or, two prints from a decent support area and stop confluence against the trend. Either way, it'll resume the trend in abundance testing the bounce, and abruptly. This creates the W or M formations on the chart. The H&S formation is the proof of the direction of the trend. Which is to say, all three prints, or legs, were made above and beyond stop territory, and in most cases, found support from those stops. The momentum and price oscillators show divergences and balance shifts based on the strength or weakness of the initial against-the-trend run-up. Hence the H&S. Like the hunchback of Notre Dame and the Elephant Man is what the lines on the chart look like.

The same holds true of ranges. Look for a breakout of the daily to confirm the breakout of a 4 or 6 hour chart. A weekly for the daily. A monthly for a weekly. And so on.

Lawrence, likely through more experience than proprietary technology finds a confluence of support and resistance areas in this fashion. Maybe not exactly in this regard, but assuredly similar.

Call him to the carpet though. lol

Intraday charts will show these formations on a microcosmic scale before the daily, weekly, monthly, quarterly, annual, decade charts. But if it's a legitimate trend, all charts will eventually evidence these formations.

Quote from gmst:

Thanks, I mostly agree that it generally works, and I should be alert about it. I remember you catched developing H&S this time very well. I am sceptical however about the H&S working intra-day, but then how much do i know.

On another note, I am certain that double tops and triple tops/bottoms do work in intra-day setting. Guess I need to be more alert about H&S patterns.
 
Quote from Lawrence Chan:

Yeap.

When gap is gapped thru in ES, the price to close the gap will still be tested one way or the other with very high prob.

So 85-86 has been in the card ever since open.

thanks!
 
Quote from noone3:

If anyone could elaborate on the 2nd gap rule, it would be much appreciated. I read the link but didnt quite get the example. How does it apply today?
Thanks

in terms of Dec es, mkt closed friday 1153.50 it opened sunday night at 1172 almost a 20 point gap, es is only closed for an hour. (Why is that does the man behind the curtain have to use the restroom?)
Lets say the es opens up at 1195 this would create a second gap which according to Pekelo is filled pretty quickly. So lets say es opens
1195 trades back to 1191.75 then the second gap would fill. Others are welcome to chime in here. I just noticed there were two gaps on spy on the 60 minute chart.
 
Quote from kinggyppo:

in terms of Dec es, mkt closed friday 1153.50 it opened sunday night at 1172 almost a 20 point gap, es is only closed for an hour.0000000000 (Why is that does the man behind the curtain have to use the restroom?)ooooooooooooo IT does it's adjustments there if needed000000000
Lets say the es opens up at 1195 this would create a second gap which according to Pekelo is filled pretty quickly. So lets say es opens
1195 trades back to 1191.75 then the second gap would fill. Others are welcome to chime in here. I just noticed there were two gaps on spy on the 60 minute chart.
 
Quote from kinggyppo:

in terms of Dec es, mkt closed friday 1153.50 it opened sunday night at 1172 almost a 20 point gap, es is only closed for an hour. (Why is that does the man behind the curtain have to use the restroom?)
Lets say the es opens up at 1195 this would create a second gap which according to Pekelo is filled pretty quickly. So lets say es opens
1195 trades back to 1191.75 then the second gap would fill. Others are welcome to chime in here. I just noticed there were two gaps on spy on the 60 minute chart.

thanks very much for the reply!

Just to clarify, the 2nd gap to fill would be from 1191.75 to 1153.50?
Or is he just talking about the 72-95 area?
Thanks
 
Quote from noone3:

thanks very much for the reply!

Just to clarify, the 2nd gap to fill would be from 1191.75 to 1153.50?
Or is he just talking about the 72-95 area?
Thanks

I think only the second gap which is very small as the es just opened up very near the close, this works better in equities where
there is an obvious gap created from the overnight session. There is a website called "Master the Gap" that is all he does some interesting ideas. Don't want to post the link, I am not advocating any site. Here is a general article on the types of gaps. By the way if you think that price doesn't have memory then gaps won't matter.

http://www.investopedia.com/articles/trading/05/playinggaps.asp#axzz1f2qKSpNw
 
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