ES Journal Archive (2011)

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Quote from Laissez Faire:

Or we trade lower from here. Flip a coin. :)

1180 stopped the fun once again. Let`s see in after hours.

I can see us open gap down tomorrow, maybe 2,6%, then start the expected new years rally and gap fill from below. Not so sure about this rally everyone is expecting though.

One of several scenarios I`m currently entertaining.

Market appears weak to me. Just saying. :)
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it seems very weak, i agree.

yesterday's low held, however
 
Quote from tortoise:

it seems very weak, i agree.

yesterday's low held, however
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Yes, but the pit session closed almost at the lows.

It`s amusing how fast those Bloomberg headlines change. Not long ago, the market advanced on FOMC minutes and now it appears to have dropped on GDP revision. As always, masters of causality the financial media. :)

Even from a bearish perspective, I was a little surprised that we did not trade higher today and started filling the gap above. Fairly clueless on long-term bottoms, but I wonder if that could mean that we really are bottoming out here.

I guess we shall all know by tomorrow, but I remain bearish in the face of seasonality until proven otherwise.

The overnight session leading into today`s open actually topped out at R1 to the tick. Not the first time I`ve seen the AH session top out around those levels.

R1 = 1194,25.

R2 = 1202,75.

The R2 level should cap the upside, assuming normal market conditions and no news.

Interestingly, S2 is 1170,75, also the low from 10th of October to the tick. How could that be? :)

Potential AH low there.

Assuming normal market conditions, the maximum low should be at 1162, although trading that low should open up the possibility for an AH range beyond "normal".

1166,50 is the low from 7th of October.

That would be all. :p
 
Quote from ammo:

big snack,watching tick do you take these as end of moves
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Ammo, sorry to have left you hanging, I missed most of the afternoon. I usually don't have any way of confirming that a move is over via the TICK. If I am reading what you have circled correctly, you are showing higher lows or lower highs, which may show a divergence between price and may give a clue to the end of a move. Does that sound about right?

If that's what you are referring to, then I used to try and keep track of that, but have since stopped. If price has hinted at a trend change (higher high, Resistance / support flip, etc.), I look to see if the TICK has also changed trend, and even better has that change on the TICK also coincided with a TICK close above 600 or below -600. IF that all lines up, then I start looking for a pullback level to get in on.

As long as we don't violate my rules on the pullback, I will get in. The cleanest entry of the day for me was at 10:10 a.m. PST. RIght around 10 a.m. the TICK was closing above 600, as price was flirting with the previous high at 92.25's. From there we pull straight down into a 50% retracement, and the TICK shoots downward but does NOT close back below -600. That's about as clean as it gets for me!

If I miss the gem entry, I try everything in my power to just sit tight and wait for the next one. A lot of these entries are no heat, so I'm learning more and more just to hang and wait for the right opportunity.
 

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snack,i was looking more for an exhaustion tick,since the nip on that was close to zero,not skewed in either direction,wondering if that was commonplace and not a signal at all,don't really watch it,but since everything else was not giving any clues or at best ,minute ones,i took a look,like LC and the gaps, i was asking because you would notice more than I
 
Got it, I see what you are saying. I have subscribed to the thread you pointed me to where they were using MP on the TICK to help ID extreme levels, but I haven't devoted any time to digging in yet. Hopefully the holidays will give me that chance. :)
 
Quote from ammo:

snack,i was looking more for an exhaustion tick,since the nip on that was close to zero,not skewed in either direction,wondering if that was commonplace and not a signal at all,don't really watch it,but since everything else was not giving any clues or at best ,minute ones,i took a look,like LC and the gaps, i was asking because you would notice more than I
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I totally got it now :)

My first clues for trend change are:

1. Has price made a HH, this invalidating the downtrend?
2. Has the TICK broken it's trendline as well?

Those two things have to happen before I will consider fading a trend. I did about 6 months of study trying to learn a pattern to the divergent / exhaustion side of the TICK, and after 6 months it was net negative so I gave up on it. I just couldn't personally figure it out.
 
Someone sold ES futures, that`s what happened. :)

Bounced off S2 and the day low on 10th of October for now. Next stop, 66,50.

Would be very surprised if we don`t trade down to 1150 by tomorrow.
 
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