ES Journal Archive (2011)

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Predictable reaction around 1180, but is it a bottom? Or just a bounce?

It seems to me that the trend remains down and we may still retrace some here, although this is a potential bottom. Hard to tell from here?
 
Quote from Laissez Faire:

Predictable reaction around 1180, but is it a bottom? Or just a bounce?

It seems to me that the trend remains down and we may still retrace some here, although this is a potential bottom. Hard to tell from here?
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bottom--it's buy time
 
Quote from gmst:

4. Now this is important, what i am saying is - if you are in a ballpark manner buying at a very oversold level, giving the position 10 points stop, chances are given sufficient time, ES will backfill and hit 1200 or even 1210 (looking at we are coming from 1280 AND we had such a large number of down days) before it does go and hit 1170.
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I get your logic, and it makes perfect sense. What I'm not so sure about is the 1200 before 1170 part. Yes, it will hit both, but in what order :) That's what I'm not willing to risk 10 points on.
 
Quote from Laissez Faire:

1180 last line of defense for them longs? :)
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Nice defense and nice statement. :)

No gap fill below on this round after all then?

Back to bed now and this time for good I hope. No positions. :p
 
Quote from JoshDance:

I get your logic, and it makes perfect sense. What I'm not so sure about is the 1200 before 1170 part. Yes, it will hit both, but in what order :) That's what I'm not willing to risk 10 points on.
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Yes, ultimately its based on feel. You must have enough screen time and feel before you can swing in this way. Also, two very very very important things -

1. I urge you to please not worry about losing 10 points on 1 trade, you have to worry about being overall profitable after doing 30-50 trades in this particular manner. one trade means nothing.

2. buying when price is looking weakest and selling when market is looking strongest will yield the best results - however, two filters should be added to follow above. a) if you are buying weakness, ES must have fallen 30-40 points over the last 1-2-3days and on the day of buying, it must be down at least 10 points in a rapid way-basically very oversold. AND b) it will increase your chances if you just bounced from a support or couldnt break support after 3-4-5 probes (just as happened today - look at 1180-1182 range and how many probes ES made, even on high negative DOM skew, it couldnt break).

Caution: All the things that I have written in last 2-3 posts, come from my experience trading forex and having watched ES for last 2 months (in which I have been net negative, because I haven't been following this approach, primarily becasue my account size is not enough to follow this approach). So, please take everything with a grain of salt.
 
Quote from noone3:

IMF CREATES NEW PROGRAM TO DEAL WITH MARKET STRESS; 6 MONTH LIQUIDITY LINE

hmmm
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Thanks for the news update -- who do you use for news if I may ask? (always polling on this)

lol, marketwatch.com just got it up, 9 minutes after the fact. Useless
 
Quote from gmst:

no concrete definition, just a feel thing - however that is not key.

Key is (not only in my opinion, but I have full confidence on this) that I am risking 8-10 points for a multi-day swing on which i stand to make 20-40 points. Based on the amount of backfill ES does, its a no-brainer that this strategy will be profitable over a large number of trades. You need to be careful about two things though - Dont sell when market is cruising along gaining 4-6-8 points everyday, since equity markets have a uptrend bias over the long run. And when you are buying in a oversold condition, dont use more than 10-15 point stop.

Edit: Anything can happen over 1 trade, what i said above will be true over multiple trades.
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Disagree with most of your post, but what the hell.
 
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