ES Journal Archive (2011)

Status
Not open for further replies.
Quote from Visaria:

Place the stop where, if hit, proves you are wrong in the trade.
More...

I know this intellectually V -- and this is what I keep saying to myself. I suppose that in my mind I was "wrong" if it traded back above 16.. but the nearest resistance was 17. I was wrong after all in that we did not get the dump I was hoping for. If it didn't go below 13.50 the second time, chances were slim that it was break down that far, so I suppose I was wrong and took my tiny loss as planned. It seems that at certain times of the day like 3pm and later (esp. on Friday, and particularly opt ex friday?), that it becomes fruitless for me personally to try to read the order flow. It can dick around for 20 minutes in a 2 point range, and then shoot up 3 points in 1 minute. It's just very difficult for me to set a trade and leave it alone.

Have a great weekend buddy and thanks for the reminder.
 
I had some 1215 calls on ES. We closed at 1213.5 so they were OOM. I think the deadline for exercising is 5:30PM EST but I'm not sure. I was half watching SPY until then. At the 4:15 close for ES it was at 121.90 and now it's at 122.11.

I don't know the exact conversion because of the dividend, but a 21 cent gain should be a more than 2 point change in ES. That would make it worth exercising, but just barely. Is it even possible to exercise at this point? If so I will check back in at 8pm when SPY stops trading.
 
The big pic says it all, no reason to waste time grabbing nickles and pennies or trying to understand the noise.

The edge does not come from predicting the head and shoulders collapse the edge is in trading the shoulders reaction, that gives you certainty, after that comes randomness, which translates into losses unless you are well versed in the examination of neckline backtests.

2mdnihi.png


Crazy A
 
Status
Not open for further replies.
Back
Top