ES Journal Archive (2011)

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Quote from JoshDance:

out at 16.50 instead
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Nice trade, Josh, excellent entry.

I'm seeing long entries here, but since I stopped fading the trend in September I've been doing well, so sitting on my hands for the time being.
 
Re: Sidelines, cash and light volume


Every firm I've talked to has over a 50% cash position, and has been light on trading since the week of Veterans day.

All this selling, especially in commodities, seems to be people going to cash more than anything else. Obviously stops, short problems, etc. are also an issue.

Also brokers have been tightening margin requirements this week.

Of course this is speculation, but I feel like there is an open secret floating around about something unattractive... is Israel getting ready to take care of Iran? Is the data horrendous now? :confused:
 
Almost forgot - most of you and street guys have known the super committee isn't going to fly. Maybe this is all the end of musical chairs as Nov. 23rd approaches.
 
Quote from Picaso:

Nice trade, Josh, excellent entry.

I'm seeing long entries here, but since I stopped fading the trend in September I've been doing well, so sitting on my hands for the time being.
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Thanks P -- I would be doing better had I shorted the move down instead of fading. I'm better than before--I used to fade long and short. Now I go with trend long, but I also long against short trends :) I'm halfway there perhaps? :-)

Without fail again, this is an example where waiting for 1211 second time was a good choice. Before when I longed in the 15-17 or wherever it was, I did so without good confirmation. Waiting would have kept me out of a losing long.

Early adopters (bottom and top pickers) have the worst of both worlds: they incur the risk of price discovery, thereby losing most of their trades (by simple nature of the trend going against them), AND even if they do pick the top or bottom of a move, they 95% of the time have to be tested and risk getting stopped out. It pains me that I still have these tendencies, but with enough bear days maybe I will come around to shorting, and then be able to do both effectively :)
 
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