1242 looks like support but damn it's too obvious? 
ES Journal Archive (2011)
- Thread starter Buy1Sell2
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Quote from bigsnack:
Just that the ES likes to move and then pull back 50%. We are trading at the 50% now, so I wouldn't be surprised if we see a bounce here. That being said, the TICKs look really really weak, so I wouldn't even think of trying a long until the downward trend on the TICK breaks, and ideally I want it to break and close above 600. Once that happens I want to make sure that the ES made some form of higher high. And then if all of that lines up, I will buy the next pullback, as long as the TICK is in the -350 to -600 range when it pulls back, but does NOT close back below -600.
It sounds a bit confusing in one paragraph, but that's my whole strategy, and I've laid it out in steps a couple of times here. We'll see if the pieces line up!
I read it few times and its kind of making sense, as to what you are trying to say. So, I assume this is the setup on which your targets are 3 or 6 points ? If yes, how do you decide 3 vs 6 points ?
PS: Btw, I thought initially i will try to backtest it, however the idea seems pretty complex to put in the code
so i guess i will try to do a manual backtest.i don't know much but this push for 1252 is getting a bit long in the tooth, esp considering the time.
how about this scenario, they push it to 1246.50, then drop the bottom out? lol got a bad feeling 
Quote from gmst:
I read it few times and its kind of making sense, as to what you are trying to say. So, I assume this is the setup on which your targets are 3 or 6 points ? If yes, how do you decide 3 vs 6 points ?
PS: Btw, I thought initially i will try to backtest it, however the idea seems pretty complex to put in the code
This has been my dilemma as well. The setups seem to be pretty subjective, so I don't really know how to code it into a viable strategy that is automated. I'm thinking the TICK portion of the strategy could be automated, but I don't really know how to quantify the price action that I go off of. If you ever happen to have an idea, I'm all ears!
If I catch the very first pullback in a trade, and my entry is good and I feel like I am definitely in the right, I will hold for 6 points. Oftentimes if there is some sort of break out, or if I missed the first pullback but I'm trying to catch the second one, I will only aim for 3. A lot of times I'm getting out too early, but it's a guaranteed profit and it's one part of the equation I don't have to worry about anymore. Also, if all the pieces of my setup don't match, then I usually aim for 3 just to be safe.
Right now is a perfect example, where we had a slightly HH on price (on the 512 tick chart), and then the market pulled back into a 50% long. However, the TICK did not close above 600. In this case I can either a: get in and only go for a short target, or b: stay out completely.
Lastly, I see longs WAY easier than I see shorts for some reason. The trades work both ways, but I get much more nervous about taking sells...
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