ES Journal Archive (2011)

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Quote from Picaso:

LF, yes, you're right, they express a totally subjective view, but...


... once drawn (the subjective part), then you have an objective line in the sand, a trigger if you will. :)
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This nails the market for me EXACTLY. Trendlines, S/R, fibs, retracements are not objectively reliable. Nobody can say that this channel will work and that channel won't. To me, all TA does is give the average person enough confidence to take a chance, and that's all we are really doing here, right?
 
Quote from Picaso:

LF, yes, you're right, they express a totally subjective view, but...


... once drawn (the subjective part), then you have an objective line in the sand, a trigger if you will. :)
More...

Right now I have 5 on my 5-minute. Which of them is real? :p

I think the key must be to use objective rules for how to draw them. Excluding the wicks could be one rule as the wicks can be considered fake breakouts not validated by time.

When in doubt, stay out. Personally, I don`t see any clear trend lines or channels on my 5-minute that I would trust completely.

There is a very steep trend line from the bottom. At the current top, I`m observing a flag. Triangular shape on the 5-minute. Horizontal on the 1-minute.

Enough to draw a line in the sand for me as the question remains whether we have a pending reversal or consolidation before trading higher. Breaking below the 20-EMA could possibly add some confirmation. :)

Until that, it seems like a smart time to stay flat to me.
 
Quote from bigsnack:

This nails the market for me EXACTLY. Trendlines, S/R, fibs, retracements are not objectively reliable. Nobody can say that this channel will work and that channel won't. To me, all TA does is give the average person enough confidence to take a chance, and that's all we are really doing here, right?
More...
i think of it as trading with a cheat sheet
 
Quote from bigsnack:

Trendlines, S/R, fibs, retracements are not objectively reliable.
More...

Perhaps not objectively reliable, but there is no interpretation of what yesterday`s high/low/close/50% retracement is. No matter what time frame one uses. Not everyone uses time based charts or even charts at all.

Drawing trend lines adds a subjective element that is not present when using objectively defined S/R based on price history. :)
 
Quote from Laissez Faire:

Perhaps not objectively reliable, but there is no interpretation of what yesterday`s high/low/close/50% retracement is. No matter what time frame one uses. Not everyone uses time based charts or even charts at all.

Drawing trend lines adds a subjective element that is not present when using objectively defined S/R based on price history. :)
More...

Quote from Laissez Faire:

Right now I have 5 on my 5-minute. Which of them is real? :p

I think the key must be to use objective rules for how to draw them. Excluding the wicks could be one rule as the wicks can be considered fake breakouts not validated by time.
More...

Nothing in the market is objective. You have at least 5 horizontal levels of interest as well that traders are considering. All of them are "real", none of them matter except the one which traders pay attention to.

Anytime you observe a "triangle" or "bull flag" or anything similar, you observe price working in the diagonals of the market.

Actually as you have demonstrated, traders can consider different values for a close or high or low or gap fill, and 50% retracements depend of course on which swing point you're talking about. And even then, so what? So we know where the close is, or low is, etc...-- what then? Objective information must then be used to reach a subjective conclusion: where's the market going in the next 5 minutes, hour, day, etc.? That's the hard part.
 
Quote from Laissez Faire:

Perhaps not objectively reliable, but there is no interpretation of what yesterday`s high/low/close/50% retracement is. No matter what time frame one uses. Not everyone uses time based charts or even charts at all.

Drawing trend lines adds a subjective element that is not present when using objectively defined S/R based on price history. :)
More...

Easier to calculate (and thus program) yes; objective only up to a point... let me remind you of your previous and repeated discussions on RTH vs. ETH, 16:00 vs. 16:15, Fibonacci vs. Lucas, EMA vs. WMA, 5' vs. 133 ticks, etc.

Not that I'm swearing by channels.

Edit: Look at that! Who's the Picasso of channels now? Who's your daddy? :D :p

---

Edit: consumer credit filtration? Unlikely? Berlusconi resigning?

Too much volume, imv, to be a mere stop-run
 
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