ES Journal Archive (2011)

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Quote from bigsnack:

I don't see a break of the downtrending tendency in this case, but my wife has been telling me that I need glasses so.... :)
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It could be worse: she could have said that SHE is gonna need glasses

:D :p
 
Quote from Visaria:

I think I'm trying to say diversified methods or systems. On their own, not particularly great, (the ev of the 1:1 may be zero) together may be smooth the equity curve without affecting performance.

Wouldn't agree that the main reason why people go all-in, but scale out is psychological needs due to over-leverage. My reason for looking into this is nothing to do with leverage, i never even use leverage.It maybe just that these markets in the past few weeks have been pretty awful (to me anyway). I've given back profits of 20 handles, breaking even on the trade, a number of times. With a scale out mode, i would have captured something.
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Then I guess that's not the reason why you would scale out.

Can't you simply backtest it?

Edit: also, with mean-reverting strategies, adding as the position goes against you should improve the performance, whereas in a trend following system you would add as the position goes in your favor, so likewise, it will depend on your particular strategy - it stands to reason that some strategies will benefit from scaling out, while it will hurt some others. All people I have met that backtested their strategies said that scaling out decreased expectancy. Then again, the same tends to happen with moving stops to BE, but people still do it. :(
 
Quote from Laissez Faire:

I`ve drawn out my dead zone for now, so I`m just waiting for the market to reveal it`s hands to me, accepting that this range at the lows is untradeable noise to me. :)
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Dead zone breached. :p

Friday low next?
 
Quote from bigsnack:

For me, it's a matter of the risk vs. the reward. A trade that that is at the line of "death" both on price and on TICK value gives me a chance to get in with the smallest amount of risk possible. If the market literally went 1-2 ticks higher (to 54.25's for example), I would know I was wrong immediately.

I don't see a break of the downtrending tendency in this case, but my wife has been telling me that I need glasses so.... :)
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Obviously, you are incorporating "feel" into your trading. Nothing wrong with that, but that's precisely why I asked the question. Now, in hindsight you can find all sorts of arguments, but the truth is that, at that moment in time, the trade "felt right". That's also obviously a product of your hard earned experience using your "trick".

I'll call you the 2.618-trick-pony from now on! Great trading by the way.:cool:
 
Still looks like lower from here.

Establishing a new dead zone on the 1-minute now. NQ breaking Friday`s lows would be another great confirmation for a short.

Until that happens, we could be seeing a bottom here. :)

Easy way to keep oneself out of trouble.
 
Quote from Laissez Faire:

NQ bounced off Friday`s low now. Potential short-term bottom.

Could that be it?

EDIT: Seems like I misread PushPull`s reply in the heat of the moment. :p
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I can see you correct your mistakes very quickly.:D
 
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