ES Journal Archive (2011)

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Short term bottom maybe, but for now I`m observing this as a retrace in a down trend.

20-EMA and opening range low + trend line breakout test around 47-48.

If no reversal there though, the bottom may be in for today, yes?
 
Quote from JoshDance:

Certainly true, but pivots only have significance in that a group of traders place significance on them. The pivot point is a measure for value, and the S and R levels are a measure of volatility. If a group of traders see the same pivot level, it becomes a self-fulfilling prophecy of significance if those traders act based on it. Otherwise it means nothing. Same with high, low, closing price, etc. So we can calculate these things any way we like, but it only has significance if others agree with that as an important number.
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Thank you for stating the obvious. You forgot to mention one other important point with regards to pivot levels though, but that shall remain unspoken on my end.

I certainly do not use any esoteric methods for calculating my pivot levels. A quick google search is all you need. Further, they seem to align with NT`s pivot levels, but I calculate them manually myself in a spreadsheet along with other market statistics.

So, perhaps you`re the one using those that the others are not looking at? I have proven that my way of calculating them works both from backtesting and forward testing in a live environment.
 
Quote from PushPull:

Glad the trade worked in your favor, but look at your chart now: The devil's advocate would point out that tick closed above +600 and that it also broke the downtrending tendency at that precise minute you entered short. Would you agree?. Or perhaps your chart is different?. In any case, thanks for the answers.:cool:
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For me, it's a matter of the risk vs. the reward. A trade that that is at the line of "death" both on price and on TICK value gives me a chance to get in with the smallest amount of risk possible. If the market literally went 1-2 ticks higher (to 54.25's for example), I would know I was wrong immediately.

I don't see a break of the downtrending tendency in this case, but my wife has been telling me that I need glasses so.... :)
 
Quote from Alexspeed:

Yes, but NQ is very strong for now and it has enough room to rise with momentum
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Correct, if you perceive it as short term strength upon retracing in a down trend (for now). :)

Unless we put in a higher low on this thrust down, one could be led to believe that NQ would test at least Friday`s lows before finding a bottom. Possibly lower?

I do however agree that we could find a bottom here. Too many different scenarios in this business at any given moment. :)
 
Quote from Picaso:

You're missing the % probability of each leg of the trade and therefore the expectancy of the trade, both as a whole and as individual trades. Therefore you cannot compare it to, say AIAO at :2 or :3

If you use the same stop for all three contracts, your probabilities of being stopped out on the whole position due to noise, not signal, increase several-fold.

Trailing stops in instruments that backfill so much (as ES and equity indexes in general) is usually not a good proposition.

The main reason why people go all-in, but scale out is psychological needs due to over-leverage. The easiest solution with the best expectancy is in 95% of the cases to simply cut down size. Do not confuse this with progressively entering and exiting positions (averaging up/down) like Ammo et al.

My 0.02
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I think I'm trying to say diversified methods or systems. On their own, not particularly great, (the ev of the 1:1 may be zero) together may be smooth the equity curve without affecting performance.

Wouldn't agree that the main reason why people go all-in, but scale out is psychological needs due to over-leverage. My reason for looking into this is nothing to do with leverage, i never even use leverage.It maybe just that these markets in the past few weeks have been pretty awful (to me anyway). I've given back profits of 20 handles, breaking even on the trade, a number of times. With a scale out mode, i would have captured something.
 
Clear bear flag on the 1-minute ES. Triangle formation on NQ.

Continuation pending or a bottom being formed here?

I`ve drawn out my dead zone for now, so I`m just waiting for the market to reveal it`s hands to me, accepting that this range at the lows is untradeable noise to me. :)
 
Quote from Hooti:

I do something like that. One trade with one contract that I intend to let the target go to the next likely S/R. A second trade with two contracts and a 1 or 1 1/2 point target. If my trade is at a functional S/R, and I'm entering with a limit order, even if the market is going to go thru it there is usually at least a brief retracement. So usually I get the two contracts out with 2 to 3 points net. I think of those as a margin increasing the size stop I have on the one contract I anticipate will run for several points.
So even if it goes agains me, I can often get out with BE or even a positive point.
Of course it will blow thru and hit my stop on both trades, all three contracts sometimes, but that is the risk.
hope that made sense!
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Interesting. Would you have fared better or worse overall if you had kept the 2 contracts, trying for the next s/r, instead of taking a couple of points?
 
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