ES Journal Archive (2011)

[Reno79]

out 28

-1.5

 

[Reno79]

S 30
ST 31.75

 

[Reno79]

out 31.75
-1.75
-3.25 total

 

[Picaso]

Quote from JoshDance:

P, what is "risk on" mode? Seems like I've heard someone else say that before, but I can't recall for sure. Can you explain?

Sometimes you see that NQ goes up because Apple beat profit expectations, but YM is flat because McDonalds fell short; oil is up, but gas is down because divergent inventories; Aussie is up because they're raising rates, but CAD is down because of the price of oil, 30 year bonds are up, but 10 year notes are down because some fund is putting on a steepener, etc...

And sometimes everything goes up or down, regardless of the particulars of each market because people are simply transferring their money from risk assets to "safe" assets or viceversa. These are the days more likely to result in trends (or sudden and nasty reversals), whereas mixed days tend to produce, well, chop-chop, as you could expect.

So in days where everything seems to align I prefer trading in the direction of the trend and in mixed days I favor short-term fading at the extremes.

 

[Picaso]

Quote from JoshDance:

May be true P, BUT we breached yesterday's high pretty handily the first time through, AND U/D ratio has been declining since open.. all selling really so far

Yes, I'm getting mixed signals. Haven't put on a trade yet.

Nice short, by the way.

 

[Reno79]

S 30.50
st 32.25

 

[JoshDance]

Quote from Picaso:

So in days where everything seems to align I prefer trading in the direction of the trend and in mixed days I favor short-term fading at the extremes.

Excellent answer, thanks P -- so do you watch all of these markets and their charts (oil, gas, bonds, notes, etc.) to reach your conclusions, or do you take a quick glance at prices across the board?

 

[Reno79]

out 32.25
-1.75
-5 total

 

[Picaso]

Quote from JoshDance:

Excellent answer, thanks P -- so do you watch all of these markets and their charts (oil, gas, bonds, notes, etc.) to reach your conclusions, or do you take a quick glance at prices across the board?

I don't watch their charts, I simply take a look at the overall look of the market.

 

[JoshDance]

Quote from Picaso:

I don't watch their charts, I simply take a look at the overall look of the market.

Using your charting software, or a finviz type of snapshot of markets, or something else? And you draw your conclusions regarding what correlations you would expect to see for one scenario versus another based on just your own personal experience?