ES Journal Archive (2011)
- Thread starter Buy1Sell2
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Interesting development over night.
Already tagged a support zone at 25/26 and formed a double bottom there for now.
I entered a simulator short @ 33 that I now wish was real. The reason it was simulator is that I don`t normally trade ETH and the market seemed overextended, although it was a nice pullback entry.
Tempted to enter a short if we break below 25 from here, although I would prefer a larger retracement going into the U.S. session. May not get that at all.
The implications of what came out from Greece last night is obviously very serious. It should be interesting to see what develops by the end of the US close.
Already tagged a support zone at 25/26 and formed a double bottom there for now.
I entered a simulator short @ 33 that I now wish was real. The reason it was simulator is that I don`t normally trade ETH and the market seemed overextended, although it was a nice pullback entry.
Tempted to enter a short if we break below 25 from here, although I would prefer a larger retracement going into the U.S. session. May not get that at all.
The implications of what came out from Greece last night is obviously very serious. It should be interesting to see what develops by the end of the US close.
If you look at the SPX 5-year profile (the big-picture time frame I prefer as it encompasses events leading up to the Lehman crash/housing bust), note the big nip at about 1231. August 31 high was 1230.71 ... which is right about where we are, at this moment, in pre-market on the ES.
We do have an ES gap below from October 20 to be filled (HOD 1215.50, close 1209), so perhaps an overthrow is in the works, but this 1230 area should provide substantial support -- unless yet another repricing of value is in the works.
Today we will obviously have a major gap down for the 2nd consecutive day. One statistic I would throw out there is that in the last 5 years the largest 2nd day unfilled gap was 27 pts., and that includes the whole Lehman / BSC collapse period. So to match that number today, using the 3:15 close of 46.50, we would have to not get above 19.50 for the entire regular session. Also bear in mind it is a T-day. 
Short term support on EUR/USD @ 1,3650, yes? Can we see a bounce from here first?
What next after that breaks?
ES complete gap fill below @ 1210,50 seems inevitable for the day during RTH.
Next gap below would be 1151. Perhaps too much to ask on one single day.
What next after that breaks?
ES complete gap fill below @ 1210,50 seems inevitable for the day during RTH.
Next gap below would be 1151. Perhaps too much to ask on one single day.
Quote from tomahawk:
Today we will obviously have a major gap down for the 2nd consecutive day. One statistic I would throw out there is that in the last 5 years the largest 2nd day unfilled gap was 27 pts., and that includes the whole Lehman / BSC collapse period. So to match that number today, using the 3:15 close of 46.50, we would have to not get above 19.50 for the entire regular session. Also bear in mind it is a T-day.
Very interesting, Tomahawk.
I`ve noticed that you seem to have comprehensive statistics. Do you compile them yourself or get them elsewhere?
Thanks.
Quote from Laissez Faire:
Very interesting, Tomahawk.
I`ve noticed that you seem to have comprehensive statistics. Do you compile them yourself or get them elsewhere?
Thanks.
I'm a nut. I compile them myself.
EDIT: and btw, despite the stats I quoted about the 2nd day gap it sure seems like ES wants to see 1187 today (2 day drop of 100 pts), right in the 50% p/b zone of this last major up swing since 10/4. That'd also be roughly -4% from yesterday's close, in line with Europe's being down 3-5% at one point this morning.
Quote from Laissez Faire:
Short term support on EUR/USD @ 1,3650, yes? Can we see a bounce from here first?
What next after that breaks?
ES complete gap fill below @ 1210,50 seems inevitable for the day during RTH.
Next gap below would be 1151. Perhaps too much to ask on one single day.
Not that it really matters, but I have 1209 for the complete gap fill, based on the day's close. Are my numbers off or do you use a different metric? Thnx
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