ES Journal Archive (2011)

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Quote from ammo:

you.ve got htis pseudo trend day working in your favor,we'll find it if it's butter or margarine
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I have pretty rigorous minimum requirements of value/momentum to enter a trade. You can see I bought 1222.25 three times today before hitting the big move. Thought I closed it at a pretty good spot, +10.25 looking for a 'system' reentry which I probably get 85% of the time, just not today. So I get to chat with you guys :)
 
Quote from cashcarewins:

I have pretty rigorous minimum requirements of value/momentum to enter a trade. You can see I bought 1222.25 three times today before hitting the big move. Thought I closed it at a pretty good spot, +10.25 looking for a 'system' reentry which I probably get 85% of the time, just not today. So I get to chat with you guys :)
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that chart usually gets a bolt to the upside on the close for the caught shorts,could still happen
 
I think the closing (last hour) trades are the most technical in the sense that they 'continue' the current trend more than any other time period. Often times you'll see a complete reversal in the after hours and you ask yourself what were they thinking on the close. Well, they weren't. Just traders reacting to the moment.
 
Quote from macho grande:

don't need a stop when your right :)

ps it's a work in progress
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Noob. It's not about being right, it's about protecting against what you don't know will happen. There is nothing preventing another flash crash, for example, if you get caught in an S&P 200 point slump and sell, all of your 'perfectly predicted' gains will be gone! Trading is easy; don't confuse difficulty for the reasons to have stop losses.
 
one trader mentioned that the majority of hft and etf trades had to be flat on close,if its too(l/s) lopsided ,you get the big move in the last 30-45 minutes
 
Quote from GordonTheGekko:

Noob. It's not about being right, it's about protecting against what you don't know will happen. There is nothing preventing another flash crash, for example, if you get caught in an S&P 200 point slump and sell, all of your 'perfectly predicted' gains will be gone! Trading is easy; don't confuse difficulty for the reasons to have stop losses.
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Stop management is certainly the most difficult aspect of trading. I know I do a terrible job of it. Set stop, cancel stop, reset stop, be thankful for a minor retrace to get out. It probably works out for me in the sense that the net losses are probably about the same. But I think the bigger issue is that by (mis)managing stops you lose focus on the market and often deprive yourself of the opportunity of entering a better trade later.
 
Quote from cashcarewins:

Stop management is certainly the most difficult aspect of trading. I know I do a terrible job of it. Set stop, cancel stop, reset stop, be thankful for a minor retrace to get out. It probably works out for me in the sense that the net losses are probably about the same. But I think the bigger issue is that by (mis)managing stops you lose focus on the market and often deprive yourself of the opportunity of entering a better trade later.
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Def also true.

IMO, only time stops are not ideal re for investments, or any other nonintraday positions where youre not in front of your monitors full time (same sinario - flash crash, stop out, market back up, you're out many percents)
 
Quote from Picaso:

Nice, agile flip, Josh :)
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Thanks P!

==
I debated whether to post this or not because it's after the fact and I didn't take the trade, but we're all here to learn and perhaps by posting this I'll ingrain into my head more confidence to take this trade in the future.

http://screencast.com/t/m7TEMiVJ

The left profile is the ETH profile I have on my chart, as it looked at the time where it ends (just before the move up from 20.50. It's not always like this of course, but 20.50 was the day's VAL at the time (that's the solid gray line at the bottom of the profile), and you'll notice the nice big ledge between 20.50 and 20.25. I was looking to go long at 20.50 for this reason, but I did not because I questioned my plan and looked left and saw the huge move down which scared me off; and I missed the second shot after it consolidated in the 22-24 area because again I was not convinced.

But, I post this to show that support was found near where it was previously, and this is where the bulk of the volume ended; it signified that traders did not want to explore further down, but that they saw 20.50 as value. I know the move up was quite news related, but technically it was a good long setup in my book. Anyway, hope you don't flame me for the after the fact coulda woulda shoulda but I thought maybe you all can get something out of it as I have.
 
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