Quote from dax3k:
Looks like everybody that's been predicting a short trend has been dead wrong.
Market likes to f*** as many ppl as possible holds TRUE.
Seems to me the so called recession is over and we are entering a period of massive growth.
15-20% rise in 1 1/2 weeks. WOW. Nicely played.
The thing is this market is so rigged that I'd rather go to the casino instead of getting hustled by Goldman.
Good Weekend all.
dax3k
This is a great post, because it is a perfect snapshot of the mindset of the majority of us who watch the markets (myself included, as much as I hate to admit it).
Anyone who tries to predict trend in either direction will more often than not be dead wrong, whether they use technicals, fundamentals, or both. This is because...
... the market does not exist to "f***" people, it exists to enrich those who are able to use it properly, and make poor (in a hurry) those who do not.
The recession is not over by any means, and anyone who says so is either a politician, a CNBC analyst on an "UP" day, or a believer in what the previous two types have to say. The intraday action of the market could care less about what the overall condition of the economy is, what is happening in Greece, whether there is a plot to by Muslims to pay Mexicans to kill Saudis.
When you go to the casino, you know what game you will be playing (blackjack, craps, etc.) and you know the approximate edge of the house (I've heard it's around 5%). When you login to your trading account each morning, there is no way to know what the game will be that day, and the edge is always 100%. This is because as traders we are REACTING to the action as it unfolds, we do not CONTROL the action (unless you are Laissez Faire...LOL). We are not being "hustled by Goldman", we are competing against the best of the best, and trying to take their money.
I have spent the better part of fifteen years studying the markets in general, and ES in particular. I have just recently come to most (okay, all) of the realizations I have shared above. I am not putting down anything you said, just trying to help a fellow trader get a little perspective. The more I can detach myself from what I "think" and focus on what the market is "telling" me will happen, the better I seem to do, and the less of my money I give to others.
I hope you all have an awesome weekend, looking forward to another week of trading with you, "if the good Lord is willing and the creek don't rise."
