ES Journal Archive (2011)

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Good luck to the shorts today. It looks like the angels were going to spare you for a day. Oh so close to very tough results!!

Tonight/tomorrow high side is topside 121676 and the low side is 118400.

Ammo and Volente , I hope you stuck in there. It looks like that pasta guy is hedging ,so maybe he is out of trouble to a point.

Would be good to know what he did for 'hedges' today.Say something Mussalini Mastacoli:D
 
Quote from Macho:

Good luck to the shorts today. It looks like the angels were going to spare you for a day. Oh so close to very tough results!!

Tonight/tomorrow high side is topside 121676 and the low side is 118400.

Ammo and Volente , I hope you stuck in there. It looks like that pasta guy is hedging ,so maybe he is out of trouble to a point.

Would be good to know what he did for 'hedges' today.Say something Mussalini Mastacoli:D
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I am still short but not as much as I was overnight. Daily chart freaked me out when I woke up this morning so I covered all my contracts outright at 1203.5 when we broke through this morning. This was done anticipating a buy stop run. Sure enough it happened. Did not do anything with the Puts or Calls that I was short overnight.

Decided to add half position back on when we topped late morning around 1208. Still knew there was the prob of it breaking in the afternoon given that a full ATR was still in the works bringing the market up to 1215.5. Sure enough it did it so instead of selling more contracts, I sold 1210 and 1215 weekly calls when it reached those levels. I kept telling myself we are still in the range so be confident in your analysis.

The puts I sell against my short contracts are not really hedges. They help average my cost up on shorts without adding additional contracts.

End of the day I have to manage my risk and this is one of the ways I feel comfortable doing it. Probably not a suitable strat for intraday traders but definitely something to consider if one swing trades for bigger moves. However, still have to draw a line in the sand at some point and there is always that risk of waking up one day and the market being in your face big time. I think that risk is more to the downside then upside but you never know.
 
I don't like the fact that one of the 2 shorter term EMA's closed above the 50 SMA on the daily. That does not bode well for a longer term move down based on where we are coming from over the last 2 months. Not saying selling pressure is over but...

I do like the fact that we are coming off a 7 day run so that should allow me to work my way out of this short. Who knows, maybe I will wake up tomorrow and Xmas comes early. Not going to hold my breadth.

Numbers I am watching tomorrow:
Upside: 1216, 1229.75, 1233.5
Downside: 1180.75, 1163.25, 1245.5
Pivot: 1198.5....fyi, covered my 1210 calls here as I am typing this
 
I posit action sideways in consolidation for possibly a week or better at these levels. Average price spread monthly is in a channel upside and down, with neither side budging; but the time drift is obviously favoring bears. If you pull up the weekly I posted yesterday, you'll notice that the weekly sma adapted to a 15 minute chart is more than a mere reflection of action at the 5 year average; seen below. Nice range trades fading extremes, as pointed out here recently by others. Action around the 5 and especially a strong close below it will I'ld imagine be just what's needed for a slow crawl in open interest long. But not for long. Then, the over-extension continuation sell from the 600 1/2 bounce was more than a whimper and we're obviously fishing for a bottom. There isn't volume north, though. The current trend is: All run-ups are proven to be resistance stops placed the week before that's beaten only to use the momentum south. Of course that could change at any time, but I'm still bearish. I'ld call it quits and fade 6% extremes. 88 seems a good long entry. But to 1200 + again? I wouldn't.
 

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ES has a small gap to fill from yesterdays RTH close at 97.25. Seeing us move to that level before further downside.

May also need to retest the 90 level to flush the stops from the overnight session. Looks like a tricky start...
 
Quote from keeptradin':

ES has a small gap to fill from yesterdays RTH close at 97.25. Seeing us move to that level before further downside.

May also need to retest the 90 level to flush the stops from the overnight session. Looks like a tricky start...
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Tricky indeed. Gap from below filled now.

AH low and Tuesday high currently containing the action.

I think I will need to see a move outside of that area before taking any trades.

NQ is putting in higher lows.
 
The gap above is however at 1201,75. Cash is what matters, IMO :)

Failing here at the current 50% may take us back to the lows again. Breaking those and I`m short I guess.
 
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