short 59.5, target 55.5
ES Journal Archive (2011)
- Thread starter Buy1Sell2
- Start date
- Status
out, 55.5
another blind squirrel trade
fitch downgraded italy
I shouldn't read ET when I'm taking a break, because then I feel compelled to post, knowing there are less experienced, yet serious, traders/students who will be totally confused by all the bullsh*t that gets tossed back and forth under the influence of big egos.
big ego:trading results in a very negative risk:reward ratio.
Trend following or fading, which is better? They're both valid strategies in experienced hands. If you haven't done your research, analysis, back testing and trade plan development, then either method can take you apart.
Traders here are trading different styles in different time frames, but price action is price action in any time frame.
If you're day trading using the popular 5-min chart, then you're likely to get opportunities in both directions every day. What's important is that you use a stop loss based on the 5-min price action.
If you're short term swing trading (looking to capture chunks of price swings back and forth on the daily chart), then you'll get opportunities in both directions as well, but you should take your signals off the daily chart.
The larger trend currently is down on the daily chart and price has been pulling back strongly off the "failed breakout" of support that occurred on 10/4. 10/4's close was a key reversal bar with an initial counter-trend target of 1147.00 (near term channel top/20-day EMA at the time).
If you don't like swing trading against the trend and want to short this thing, you likely look to get short on a break of a previous day's low or at a key resistance level. The near term channel and moving average broke out yesterday with conviction, which means your next target to consider shorting is the longer term down trend line across the 7/22 and 9/20 highs. This trend line takes price to around 1174.00 today and sure enough the sellers stepped in very close to that level.
Since yesterday broke the 20-day EMA, you should swing short with caution, as this 20 EMA may well become new support. If price closes above it today, that would a sign of strength for a new leg up.
I've attached a daily chart with the channel/TLs I'm referring to, which I've had drawn for some time, not after the fact.
And before everyone starts to whine about how it's all easy to call trends and price moves after the fact and how I don't have enough experience to pretend to be a guru and tell anyone here how to trade, here's my PM to iceman sent the evening of 10/4 in response to a comment he made about the market likely to run higher but 10/4 not being a key reversal signal:
("1180's" was a typo, it was 1080's)
Josh can confirm that I do know how to walk my talk on any given weekday in real time at the hard right edge, even though I know he thinks I'm nuts half the time when I put on those with-trend trades close to the highs or lows of the day.
big ego:trading results in a very negative risk:reward ratio.
Trend following or fading, which is better? They're both valid strategies in experienced hands. If you haven't done your research, analysis, back testing and trade plan development, then either method can take you apart.
Traders here are trading different styles in different time frames, but price action is price action in any time frame.
If you're day trading using the popular 5-min chart, then you're likely to get opportunities in both directions every day. What's important is that you use a stop loss based on the 5-min price action.
If you're short term swing trading (looking to capture chunks of price swings back and forth on the daily chart), then you'll get opportunities in both directions as well, but you should take your signals off the daily chart.
The larger trend currently is down on the daily chart and price has been pulling back strongly off the "failed breakout" of support that occurred on 10/4. 10/4's close was a key reversal bar with an initial counter-trend target of 1147.00 (near term channel top/20-day EMA at the time).
If you don't like swing trading against the trend and want to short this thing, you likely look to get short on a break of a previous day's low or at a key resistance level. The near term channel and moving average broke out yesterday with conviction, which means your next target to consider shorting is the longer term down trend line across the 7/22 and 9/20 highs. This trend line takes price to around 1174.00 today and sure enough the sellers stepped in very close to that level.
Since yesterday broke the 20-day EMA, you should swing short with caution, as this 20 EMA may well become new support. If price closes above it today, that would a sign of strength for a new leg up.
I've attached a daily chart with the channel/TLs I'm referring to, which I've had drawn for some time, not after the fact.
And before everyone starts to whine about how it's all easy to call trends and price moves after the fact and how I don't have enough experience to pretend to be a guru and tell anyone here how to trade, here's my PM to iceman sent the evening of 10/4 in response to a comment he made about the market likely to run higher but 10/4 not being a key reversal signal:
NoDoji wrote on 10-04-11 08:15 PM:
I also believe we'll run significantly higher through year end, but I really laughed at this because I was chatting with a fellow trader this afternoon and I looked at the daily ES chart and said to him, "If today closes back through the 1180's, it's gonna be a key reversal bar and we're going at least to 1147 off it."
I wouldn't be shocked if price moved lower before year end, but I would be surprised. I still think today was a key reversal bar.
But I won't bet anything more than a beer on it...
("1180's" was a typo, it was 1080's)
Josh can confirm that I do know how to walk my talk on any given weekday in real time at the hard right edge, even though I know he thinks I'm nuts half the time when I put on those with-trend trades close to the highs or lows of the day.
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