ES Journal Archive (2011)

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Quote from JoshDance:

You don't get it--you don't buy into weakness if you're a trend trader. Fading current strength is suicide, that's why you and others got burned. You buy with the strength on a pullback. This is an opening drive down, sellers look aggressive. Up until just now if anything I'd want to be short until buyers establish themselves, which they seem to be trying to do 2 ticks below yesterday's close.

edit: this is the essential mistake that shows lack of patience. You have to WAIT. Buying into strong selling is gambling, and vice versa.
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A pullback is a pullback until it turns into a reversal. The same thing for breakouts, an upside breakout is valid until well... its invalidated by yet more selling, or the selling could simply be a retracement.

"Trend following" or whatever it is, is no different from fading a trend that "looks" to be ending, the trader is still predicting, and he must cut losses if he is wrong.
 
Quote from mastacoli71:

If your thinking is cloudy you are trading too much size for your risk tolerance.
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The problem is people usually don't recognize their cloudy judgment until it is too late. It the 'Oh god I'm screwed, but the market HAS to pull back' moment.
 
Quote from Picaso:

The top and bottom of the "chop" range. Right now between 58-ish and 63-ish.

I.e. you'd be buying right now via a stop (stronger confirmation, but wider stop) or on a pullback to 57-58 that cannot break down (or on the first close above the 20 5' EMA after one hour, blah, blah, blah...)

The point I was trying to make is that (unless you're trading on a very long timeframe) if you're a trend follower you don't buy a news spike (that'd be a momentum trader).

Just my 0.02, not telling anyone how to trade.
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I understand. I was just asking because on big swings like we've had so far, it would be difficult for me to feel comfortable calling a bottom of a range to go long.

I'm sitting on my hands so far, and eating a bowl of cereal.
 
Quote from JoshDance:

You don't get it--you don't buy into weakness if you're a trend trader. Fading current strength is suicide, that's why you and others got burned. You buy with the strength on a pullback. This is an opening drive down, sellers look aggressive. Up until just now if anything I'd want to be short until buyers establish themselves, which they seem to be trying to do 2 ticks below yesterday's close.

edit: this is the essential mistake that shows lack of patience. You have to WAIT. Buying into strong selling is gambling, and vice versa.
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Lol, post some trades dude, that is if you ever take one. Read my post. We are essentially saying the same thing.
 
Quote from trickshot:

A pullback is a pullback until it turns into a reversal. The same thing for breakouts, an upside breakout is valid until well... its invalidated by yet more selling, or the selling could simply be a retracement.

"Trend following" or whatever it is, is no different from fading a trend that "looks" to be ending, the trader is still predicting, and he must cut losses if he is wrong.
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Thank you. These guys that post trend this trend that with all this analysis is the reason why they don't take any trades.
 
Quote from EON Kid:

do you consider 16:00 or 16:15 as the close?
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I use the daily settlement price (closer to the 16:15 time)--the daily settlement is the vwap between 16:14:30 and 16:15:00, and today it is 1158. This differs per contract--for example on crude oil it is the vwap from 14:28:00 and 14:30:00.
 
Quote from Macho:

Look Ma!! No hands:D

Edit: Hope you didn't make too much mess
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Using the hands for eating, not for trading. I don't like Friday action anyway, always seems a bit more unpredictablethan the rest of the week. Just MHO.
 
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