ES Journal Archive (2011)

[Laissez Faire]

The trend from yesterday remains in effect. AH next, but if the trend continues, that will not stop us from trading all the way up to 1160 or 1170 by end of day. It is after all a T-Day.

I`m practicing discipline, so since I missed the long side this morning, I will not initiate any trades until I get perfect confirmation with an acceptable R/R (like all trades should be).

I think a failure at yesterday`s highs would be needed for me to enter a short, although like yesterday, that failure could only be good enough for a scalp since the 50% is still a potential support area even if we trade below yesterday`s highs.

Finding some support at either yesterday`s highs or the 50% level could be the confirmation I would need for a long.

Opinions?

 

[JoshDance]

Quote from mastacoli71:

Perfect contrarian indicator...now i am convinced

A question-- a short now looks feasible; why didn't you wait to 47 to short, instead of shorting at every point you should have bought on the way up?

 

[JoshDance]

Quote from Laissez Faire:


Finding some support at either yesterday`s highs or the 50% level could be the confirmation I would need for a long.

Opinions?

I don't do fibs so I don't know where this falls but looks to be close to 50% -- there's a nice cluster of activity in the 39s to 40 that may also provide some nice support, even if yesterday's high fails.

 

[mastacoli71]

Quote from mastacoli71:

and another at 45

covered 2 at 41, +4....2 left for the big dump

 

[mastacoli71]

Quote from mastacoli71:

covered 2 at 41, +4....2 left for the big dump

now offering up only 2 at 49.5...any takers?

 

[Laissez Faire]

Quote from JoshDance:

I don't do fibs so I don't know where this falls but looks to be close to 50% -- there's a nice cluster of activity in the 39s to 40 that may also provide some nice support, even if yesterday's high fails.

Previous day high now, but I`m not convinced yet.

50% = 38,50.

You should start plotting the evolving 50% level throughout the day. I don`t watch any other retracement levels, but I`m amazed at how often the 50% level act as a turning point. Could not trade the ES without it.

 

[mastacoli71]

Quote from JoshDance:

A question-- a short now looks feasible; why didn't you wait to 47 to short, instead of shorting at every point you should have bought on the way up?

because you can make money in either direction...there is not one way to trade

 

[mastacoli71]

Quote from mastacoli71:

because you can make money in either direction...there is not one way to trade

u have to trade a system. be mechanical

 

[JoshDance]

Buying at 41 does not look that serious to me.. I will look to buy 39, depending on how strongly it approaches the area and what the volume looks like. I am still slightly pissed with myself for removing my buy order at 30.25 after it punched to 29 at the bottom, but I can't worry about that at the moment.

 

[JoshDance]

Quote from mastacoli71:

because you can make money in either direction...there is not one way to trade

Not necessarily. People blow accounts in one or two trades because "it will always come back" and they trade without stops, and average down. It works great until it doesn't come back and you're on the wrong side. And even when it does come back, it's a hell of a lot easier to trade with the trend. A buy near the low and a sell near the high of the range would have yielded a nice profit, and then a fade could be established. At any rate, I hope your trade works out.