ES Journal Archive (2011)

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Quote from austinp:

Globex low in late August was ES 1040s premarket which never got tested intraday... that will be widely watched for a potential double bottom ahead..
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1070.75 on the Dec contract, 1077 on the old Sept. But we never touched 1040's in any volume traded contract.
I alluded earlier to the double bottom possibility, it would have to be confirmed by a lower volume retest, or lower low on lower volume. It would also have to include NQ/NDX not making a new low, as in March 2009.
6.2M contract traded in ES on 8/9. No correction since has been able to beat that, and if you add the 2 days around it (total 18 million cars), it is probably volume levels we will not see, so chance are good it could fly on a retest.
 
Quote from gkramer:

You could be right. On the other hand, tech typically closes its sluggish Q3 by leading us into the holiday season, and the COMP chart looks bullish as it didn't make a HnS.

Up or down we can make money.
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I was told the same tech argument back in early july when I said we were making a shoulder at 1340-50 on spx and I said we would trade down to 1120-40 from there. Nas actually made a higher high but SPX still tanked.



nas hit a brick wall at march 16 and june 16 lows
 
Quote from volente_00:

I was told the same tech argument back in early july when I said we were making a shoulder at 1340-50 on spx and I said we would trade down to 1120-40 from there. Nas actually made a higher high but SPX still tanked.

nas hit a brick wall at march 16 and june 16 lows
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agreed... it is actually the Russell that leads all markets versus SOX or NDX of yesteryears.

1070 ES is the early August lows, and more likely than not it trades again real soon. Might not be the overall volume as before, because most of that was fund redemptions puked out which won't be back any time soon.

When it's all said and done, somewhere around ES 950 is probably the real flashpoint from where a sustained bounce occurs.
 
Quote from austinp:



When it's all said and done, somewhere around ES 950 is probably the real flashpoint from where a sustained bounce occurs.
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If 950 prints you will see low 600s.

Crazy A
 
Quote from austinp:

agreed... it is actually the Russell that leads all markets versus SOX or NDX of yesteryears.
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Well, actually I recently posted charts from March 2009 showing TF and ES making new lows, while NDX /NQ did not (it made its lows in November 2008). So NDX was teh bullish divergcne, not the Russell. I think thanks to the smart phone space (all in NDX, including chips) it is NDX back in the saddle, like the 90's. This is no coincidence, the folks at Nasdaq have made sure to always open their doors to those kind of stocks. High beta, big cap, innovative technology.

Here is the NQ monthly chart from late 2008/early 2009, and the main buy signal:
 

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Note that even intrady, when NQ made a new low from the overnight session (2175 low, Globex was 2185)), and ES had not yet done so (still above 1120), it gave us a sell signal. It happens almost everyday, every minute.
This is just my experience. I find TF to be too dramatic and all over the place. NQ is a much stabler guide for me.
 
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