ES Journal Archive (2011)

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Quote from gkramer:

Not on nothing, but on inventory levels nearly 6M barrels under forecast. Supply down = price up.
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Sorry, to clarify I was just talking about the 5min bar right @ 2:15pm ... it happened before the Fed announcement which was delayed.
 
Quote from ASusilovic:

Strong buy every tick below 1149.00.

See you later.

U.S. 10-year yields fell to a record low midday setting a new record low. They lately traded off 5 basis points to 1.89%.

Japan’s 10-Year Bond Yields Touch 2011 Low After Fed’s Decision.

Yields on German two-year notes, perceived to be among Europe’s safest securities, dropped toward a record low.
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96 to 46 50 pts drop completed.
 
Quote from bigsnack:

Based on your posts in the thread, I think the above is definitely something you need to address. You seem indecisive even when you are in a trade at times, and I find it hard to decipher what your bias is, even when you are currently in a position.

I use the TICK for bias, and I have hard lines in the sand that help keep me biased one way or the other. It is definitely not fool proof, for if I took signals blind (like most "indicator" based strategies), I would get creamed. However it helps me feel like certain trades are more likely to succeed than others.

I also have minimum expectancy for each trade, so I know exactly where my targets are based on the setup. For instance:

1. We test above yesterday's high
2. We "fail" and now start trading below yesterday's high
3. TICK closes below -600
4. Look for a pullback to sell. Ideally against yesterday's high price exactly (give or take)
5. Expect at least X points from this type of setup, so target is set accordingly.

Maybe a journal would help, but I'm not sure?
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Thanks for the advice. I will put this into consideration.

I don`t know. I may seem indecisive and switch bias quickly, but I`m not sure if that is entirely bad, as I got paid for that on Tuesday when I realized we would not go higher and entered short instead. But of course, if I switch from long/short on a per tick basis, it is no good :)
 
Quote from EdwardMBlake:

Create a new personality in your head. Call him/her "risk manager", "circus manager", "internal manager", whatever floats your boat. He/she is in charge of starting "trading" and stopping "trading". Your first priority as a scalper, which you are one, if you didn't notice, is to sleep a winner every day. As soon as the "circus manager" feels you want to make "another trade", "another drink", "go for a swim", "go whoring", etc. It is time to stop "trading" and do something else. Run 50 miles, whatever.

The scalpers that last years, got there by sleeping as winners every day. 0 tics, 1 tic, 1 point, 3 points, 6 points, 50 points. It really doesn't matter, at the beginning.
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So, in essence, your advice is that I make money every day? I`d love that :)

I guess my problem is that the "risk manager" inside of me is not getting the respect he should get. Maybe burning dollar bills could force some respect.

I find that on most days I`m able to be fairly disciplined and patient, but then suddenly I get one really bad day and that is enough to do serious damage. I don`t know. For me, I`ve been thinking that the need to "sleep a winner" every night is what actually causes me to overtrade. Instead of accepting a small losing day and focusing on better opportunities tomorrow, my need to make money overwhelms me and digs me deeper in the hole.

I think better defining my setups and getting clearer rules could work wonders.

Quote from keeptradin':

Great advice, and a big part of what I am working on these days.

After being down after several trades this morning, I put on a trade after the FOMC meeting, which I don't normally do. The reason was, I needed to be positive at the end of the day, because I know what going to sleep a loser does to me.

Long story short, it worked, and I finished up about four ES points for the day. Not much, but enough to keep me from dwelling on it all night.

This is a mental game, and we need to do what works for us to stay in the game.
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But what if you ended up losing even more for the day like I did? I`m not sure if "needing to be positive for the day" is the solution, at least for me, as it may force overtrading and a focus on P&L, not the market.

I`ve been in the same situations many times. In one of my best trading days, I took three small losses in a row, before I caught two homerun trades and ended net +20 points. On that day, I did not doubt that taking the next trade was the right action.

But my worst losing days have started exactly the same. When the 4th and 5th trade is a loser, even if small, that tends to trigger something in me, completely convinced that the next trade is a winner. It usually is not :)
 
Man this is bad, I'm short and it doesn't even feel good to see how much im up this morning cause I see bad times coming and it hurts to bet against my own country but they have given us no choice but to do so. :mad:
 
Quote from diablo11:

Man this is bad, I'm short and it doesn't even feel good to see how much im up this morning cause I see bad times coming and it hurts to bet against my own country but they have given us no choice but to do so. :mad:
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Feel free to send the US Treasury a voluntary payment. Perhaps this would assuage your guilt?

(p.s. now may be a good time to start scaling out of that short)
 
Just the usual carnage for the ES, lol.

Another strange day yesterday where all over the web everyone appeared to be predicting huge downside and everyone was correct.

Im sure a few years ago, it always seemed that when the majority were looking for a huge drop it always rallied and visaversa.
The majority is always correct nowadays. Market becoming too obvious? Everyone knows it's clear that the market is in big trouble?
 
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