ES Journal Archive (2011)

[diablo11]

Quote from marceck:

Black swans by definition only occur when no one expects them. Too many bears out there so the only black swan I see is a move by SPX to 1400 by year end.
Of course that is extreme, but in any case, I don't see a retest of August lows next week.

Haa, you keep getting more and more bullish. Freakin out the bears for sure.

 

[marceck]

Quote from diablo11:

Haa, you keep getting more and more bullish. Freakin out the bears for sure.

 

[Lawrence Chan]

Quote from marceck:

Black swans by definition only occur when no one expects them. Too many bears out there so the only black swan I see is a move by SPX to 1400 by year end.
Of course that is extreme, but in any case, I don't see a retest of August lows next week. I hope I am right, for the sake of our country and the many folks struggling out there. I never relish stock market collapses, even when I'm short, only a nihilist does.

It is not extreme.

Every single bankster big name analyst has been calling this year to tag 1400 since the beginning.

Many also call for buying now as it is so cheap.

That is the expected result for the retail investors / passive fund buyers.

 

[marceck]

Well, I am now flat, no bias into this in the immediate term. ZN overshot 130'285 by a bit, but is now down to 130'195 and TNX above 1.9% again.

 

[Lawrence Chan]

Quote from Lawrence Chan:

It is not extreme.

Every single bankster big name analyst has been calling this year to tag 1400 since the beginning.

Many also call for buying now as it is so cheap.

That is the expected result for the retail investors / passive fund buyers.

Oh, GS lowered its official target for this year to 1250 last week. And by next year for sure 1400 again.

Every normal person out there thinks 1250 or higher before year end is expected. =)

 

[tomahawk]

Quote from austinp:

If they take it upside past the news... especially if it goes up, back down and up again near = past 3pm est, look for 1212 ~ 1216 zone to hit.

If they spike up there early and stall, could easily be highs of the day.

Best trading conditions, i.e. straight swings will begin past 2:45pm and probably 3pm est.

Was eyeing your 377 # all morning and saw it hit the low there. Good "no call" call.

 

[marceck]

Quote from Lawrence Chan:

It is not extreme.

Every single bankster big name analyst has been calling this year to tag 1400 since the beginning.

Many also call for buying now as it is so cheap.

That is the expected result for the retail investors / passive fund buyers.

Most of those predictions have come way down since the August debacle, and retail investors for the most part are not in this market and have not been for some me. Record outflows by them last month as well. They all went into gold.
OEX option traders on the other hand have been paring bearish bets the past few weeks. we had many readings last month above 1.7 p/c, we are now down to almost parity on some days and when we see higher ratios, it is on low volume.
Again, not taking any major stance, just not as excited as most pundits and traders as to downside potential.

 

[tomahawk]

Quote from Lawrence Chan:

Oh, GS lowered its official target for this year to 1250 last week. And by next year for sure 1400 again.

Every normal person out there thinks 1250 or higher before year end is expected. =)

And 1250 could hit today. Last FOMC day the range was 75.

 

[A-No1]

Anyone with a weak hand (close stop)holding into the FOMC announcement today..let's see a show of hands

 

[cooolweb]

Quote from tomahawk:

And 1250 could hit today. Last FOMC day the range was 75.

ES, going to down before announcement.
ES, going to down more after announcement


ES @ 1250 -not going to happen.