ES Journal Archive (2011)

[bigsnack]

That high tick was either the perfect entry for a short, or a hint that this bearish trend is toast...

 

[kinggyppo]

Quote from marceck:

New all time low for TNX, at 1.87%. ZN tags 130'280. Somehow I get the feeling that bond buyers could get creamed, but we shall see.

tnx chart................youch! don' worry you can put your money with Pimcos Neel Kashkari and get 3%.............

 

[A-No1]

Quote from A-No1:

papertrade:

long 1186 stop 1183 target 1190

papertrade closed out 1190

 

[bigsnack]

 

[marceck]

Quote from Laissez Faire:

1250 today? :eek:

I don't know about that, but I do know that we have a preponderance of bears and that the volume on 8/5, 8/8 and 8/9 was capitulative and the kind of event that does not occur back to back the next month (maybe 2 months later, but not this month). So there will be strong dip buyers, whether after a 2 day FOMC drop, or on a continued rally.

 

[Lawrence Chan]

Quote from marceck:

I don't know about that, but I do know that we have a preponderance of bears and that the volume on 8/5, 8/8 and 8/9 was capitulative and the kind of event that does not occur back to back the next month (maybe 2 months later, but not this month). So there will be strong dip buyers, whether after a 2 day FOMC drop, or on a continued rally.

black swan =)

in 1 week.

 

[keeptradin']

Quote from marceck:

Given the volatility, I would stay flat during the announcement. The huge move in bonds is something to pay attention to and all bets are off at 14:15. Regular patterns from the morning (divergences, etc..) will not be relevant as billions of dollars get adjusted in the markets. I doubt this will be a non-event like the last one.

This has been a tricky day in the ES and no doubt the Fed is the reason.

Looking forward to watching the huge spikes as the market swings back and forth, should be very entertaining.

 

[Laissez Faire]

Still respecting that down trend channel and the EMA, but NQ is holding up above it`s 50% level.

I`d like to get long if we go beyond 93 or so.

 

[austinp]

If they take it upside past the news... especially if it goes up, back down and up again near = past 3pm est, look for 1212 ~ 1216 zone to hit.

If they spike up there early and stall, could easily be highs of the day.

Best trading conditions, i.e. straight swings will begin past 2:45pm and probably 3pm est.

 

[marceck]

Quote from Lawrence Chan:

black swan =)

in 1 week.

Black swans by definition only occur when no one expects them. Too many bears out there so the only black swan I see is a move by SPX to 1400 by year end.
Of course that is extreme, but in any case, I don't see a retest of August lows next week. I hope I am right, for the sake of our country and the many folks struggling out there. I never relish stock market collapses, even when I'm short, only a nihilist does (although I do enjoy the buying opportunities).