ES Journal Archive (2011)

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Quote from marceck:

Tops are NEVER formed with this kind of sentiment:

http://www.schaeffersresearch.com/streetools/market_tools/investors_intelligence.aspx

Backing and filling to come, but this rally is going much, much higher. A week ago, I noted the sentiment numbers would set up a monster squeeze. Now sentiment is even more bearish, which will make short plays difficult.

Word of caution for those gambling big the short side. Be nimble and stay away from herd mentality when a rally gets started (the disbelief crowd).

Buy the dips.
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I see the date published but what date are the data from? I find it hard to believe sentiment that bearish with what has happened the last three days.

edit: looks like the last reading was on the 9th, since we've basically had a nasty 3-day squeeze I think it's safe to assume those levels have reversed significantly
 
Quote from Picaso:

Do you guys actually ever meet? :confused:

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EMG cancels his "short" (wink, wink) order and the market plummets 4 points in a breeze? :D
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We can save you a spot



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Quote from joneog:

I see the date published but what date are the data from? I find it hard to believe sentiment that bearish with what has happened the last three days.

edit: looks like the last reading was on the 9th, since we've basically had a nasty 3-day squeeze I think it's safe to assume those levels have reversed significantly
More...

Last publish was 9/14.
This is a 4 day rally, not 3.
As far as sentiment, Investor Intelligence is pretty darn good in terms of longer terms forecasting. Just look at the dates of previous extremes.
I'm NOT saying we won't correct, just that the dips will get bought and that we are headed higher. Nothing is certain, obviously. But that VIX needs to move down to the mid 20's before I consider the short side as a swing trade.
 
I hate to sound stupid, but here goes...

I'm long TVIX on full margin... took a 10ish% hit today, but decided to stay long in the event the futures go down tonight.

It seems as though the resistance above, along with the thought of a five day rally based off of nothingness and maybe a little machine trading is not likely. The ARMS indicator, along with other technicals like RSI, show overbought big time.

Thoughts?


Quote from marceck:

Tops are NEVER formed with this kind of sentiment:

http://www.schaeffersresearch.com/streetools/market_tools/investors_intelligence.aspx

Backing and filling to come, but this rally is going much, much higher. A week ago, I noted the sentiment numbers would set up a monster squeeze. Now sentiment is even more bearish, which will make short plays difficult.

Word of caution for those gambling big the short side. Be nimble and stay away from herd mentality when a rally gets started (the disbelief crowd).

Buy the dips. NQ closed above its 200 dma. Where do you think that puts ES in a week?

Targeting ES 1248 before we get any meaningful drop. And there will be billions of dollars waiting in line to buy it.
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Quote from marceck:

Last publish was 9/14.
This is a 4 day rally, not 3.
As far as sentiment, Investor Intelligence is pretty darn good in terms of longer terms forecasting. Just look at the dates of previous extremes.
I'm NOT saying we won't correct, just that the dips will get bought and that we are headed higher. Nothing is certain, obviously. But that VIX needs to move down to the mid 20's before I consider the short side as a swing trade.
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Don't disagree, market is still probably heavy short and could easily see 1250+. I just wasn't sure of the lag between when the sentiment is taken and when they publish.

Only problem with fading this sentiment is the fact this bounce is entirely news driven, shorts having no choice but to bail. Yesterday we rallied 40 handles off the morning low, in basically a straight line on modest volume; not exactly the type of behavior that intermediate-term bottoms are built off of.

Who knows, maybe this is just a repeate of summer-fall 2010.
 
Quote from GordonTheGekko:

I hate to sound stupid, but here goes...

I'm long TVIX on full margin... took a 10ish% hit today, but decided to stay long in the event the futures go down tonight.

It seems as though the resistance above, along with the thought of a five day rally based off of nothingness and maybe a little machine trading is not likely. The ARMS indicator, along with other technicals like RSI, show overbought big time.

Thoughts?
More...


in the event this could help:

-why use indicators that fail you
-overbought and rallies based on nothingness, dont negate fact price is gonna go where its gonna go (higher in this case).
-wheres risk management
-why trade this large of position during OpEx week where anything (extreme) is possible
 
Quote from GordonTheGekko:

I hate to sound stupid, but here goes...

I'm long TVIX on full margin... took a 10ish% hit today, but decided to stay long in the event the futures go down tonight.

It seems as though the resistance above, along with the thought of a five day rally based off of nothingness and maybe a little machine trading is not likely. The ARMS indicator, along with other technicals like RSI, show overbought big time.

Thoughts?
More...

My thoughts are trading on full margin is how traders blow up. And indicators are wrong all the time. Only price action will indicate direction.

I personally see the markets going higher with tomorrow and Monday being consolidation days, maybe even Tuesday, before we march on to 1250.

Good trading.
 
Quote from GordonTheGekko:

I hate to sound stupid, but here goes...

I'm long TVIX on full margin... took a 10ish% hit today, but decided to stay long in the event the futures go down tonight.

It seems as though the resistance above, along with the thought of a five day rally based off of nothingness and maybe a little machine trading is not likely. The ARMS indicator, along with other technicals like RSI, show overbought big time.

Thoughts?
More...

14 P RSI at 53.86 for ES, and showing a bullish divergence from the last time we hit the ES level on 8/29. We are far from overbought on the daily and the triangle breakout on the RTH hourly was pretty convincing.
As long as the majors hold the 20 dma, the dips will get bought, funds are pretty basic that way. If we had failed on day 4 (today), I would say the rally is over. Right now, we will probably get an op-ex Friday dip, some hangover on Monday. But buyers should step in, barring horrible news, but most of that seems priced in.
 
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