I missed you too LF. Truth is you are the best short term real scalper in this site. Scalping is addictive. It just is. Sorry for the 'tough love', and I'm glad to see you back here. I'll try not to scare anyone else with my questions. 
ES Journal Archive (2011)
- Thread starter Buy1Sell2
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I'm not in the crash camp. I think we already did that, with multiple equity put to call readings above 1, BPNDX hitting 15 (!), NDX percentage of stocks above the 50 dma went below 1, and more importantly, we had a washout low August 9th in the futures, a complete exhaustion move, which was done on slightly lower volume for NQ (the leader) than the higher low on August 8th, a bullish divergence.
In terms of gaps, we do have the August 26th gap below that could get filled on near term weakness, but again, lows are in for the year, if not for for the next few years going into the election and after.
Today's drop from resistance mentioned earlier was indeed impulsive and sets up weakness, probably into the holiday weekend. But keep in mind that what NDX does, SPX eventually does as well (read: we are going up to the 200 ema for ES). That would set up a move by ES to the 1250 area, filling also the NQ August 3rd gap at 2303.50. That could happen early next month.
That's pretty much my take. I am longer term bullish and expect ES to trade above 1500 in 2012. There are many more shorts to squeeze and many more retail investors to draw back in. Whoever was going to sell/liquidate already did so the past few weeks.
I proceed day by day, doing most of my trading pre-open and at the open, I am not stuck in a bias and trade the tape. But throw my feet in the fire longer term, I vote up, not down.
In terms of gaps, we do have the August 26th gap below that could get filled on near term weakness, but again, lows are in for the year, if not for for the next few years going into the election and after.
Today's drop from resistance mentioned earlier was indeed impulsive and sets up weakness, probably into the holiday weekend. But keep in mind that what NDX does, SPX eventually does as well (read: we are going up to the 200 ema for ES). That would set up a move by ES to the 1250 area, filling also the NQ August 3rd gap at 2303.50. That could happen early next month.
That's pretty much my take. I am longer term bullish and expect ES to trade above 1500 in 2012. There are many more shorts to squeeze and many more retail investors to draw back in. Whoever was going to sell/liquidate already did so the past few weeks.
I proceed day by day, doing most of my trading pre-open and at the open, I am not stuck in a bias and trade the tape. But throw my feet in the fire longer term, I vote up, not down.
Quote from SrRuthenate:
I missed you too LF. Truth is you are the best short term real scalper in this site. Scalping is addictive. It just is. Sorry for the 'tough love', and I'm glad to see you back here. I'll try not to scare anyone else with my questions.
I`m glad to hear that, eudaemon, and while I really appreciate it, I think you are giving me undue credit since I`m not as good as you may think. While I have at times displayed good understanding of short-term movements, I`m still suffering from disciplinary issues and overtrading.
I`m trying to avoid scalping completely. Riding low risk entries for big profit targets is what it`s all about, IMO
I appreciate your input, marceck. Like you, I only day trade, and I`m glad I don`t have to make projections for long-term moves.
Still, I`m trying to understand better what is happening at higher time frames and it`s fun to see if I can start grasping better what`s happening there as well
Obviously further and deeper analysis, amongst other things, are a distraction to not tackle the monster at hand: More selective and disciplined execution of what you already have. 15 trades on friday morning, for example. You already know what you have to do. Good luck with it!. Stay thirsty!.Quote from Laissez Faire:
While I have at times displayed good understanding of short-term movements, I`m still suffering from disciplinary issues and overtrading.
I`m trying to avoid scalping completely. Riding low risk entries for big profit targets is what it`s all about, IMO
Still, I`m trying to understand better what is happening at higher time frames AND IT'S FUN to see if I can start grasping better what`s happening there as well
p.s.: For fun I suggest a strip joint. You can study long term charts there.
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