ES Journal Archive (2011)

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Quote from FreakofNature:

Bigsnack,

Could you please expand a bit of your read here.

Never had much luck using the TICK to trade.

Thanks

FoN
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Sure no problem!

I am looking at a 1 min bar chart, with a 1 minute SMA on the TICK. I guess you could look at it on a 1 min line chart, as that would essentially look identical. I do like to have the bar chart with the SMA though, so I can see rejection.

The only levels I look at are +600, -600, and 0. If the TICK is closing above 600 I am biased long, and if the TICK is closing below-600 I am biased short. I always enter on limit orders, and I only buy when the TICK is moving downward (buying temporary weakness) and sell when the TICK is moving upward (selling temporary strength).

Now, I won't say always, but I will say that very often, the following things will occur together on the ES / TICK:

1. ES will hint at a trend change via higher high (bullish trend change) or a lower low (bearish trend change)
2. TICK will also show trend change by breaking it's trendline
3. Ideally, TICK will also close above 600 to confirm bullish sentiment, or close below -600 to confirm bearish sentiment.
4. ES will pull back into a clean 50% retracement for entry.

This scenario happens at least once a day, and oftentimes it will happen about 3-4. The mornings between 6:50 and 9:00 PST are the cleanest. And I rarely trade the afternoons because statistically I suck at them. It's not that the setups are less reliable, I just think I become a lot less patient.

There are other nuances to it here and there, but that's the majority of what I look for. You will notice that TICK trends carry over from the previous day, regardless of overnight price action.

The 50% pullbacks are usually super clean on the ES, to the point where you can get a to-the-tick fill and not even have the market go against you at all (minus the 1 tick to guarantee your fill). Oh, and I personally will NEVER EVER EVER fade extreme TICK readings. I'm sure that works great for some people, but I have been slammed so hard trying to pick a top or bottom like this that I have finally learned to stop. I'd rather get stomped trying to buy a pullback, as opposed to selling a +1300 TICK reading and watch the market climb another 5 points.

So yeah, I've pretty much laid the whole thing out there. Let me know if you have any questions :)
 
Quote from bigsnack:

Sure no problem!

I am looking at a 1 min bar chart, with a 1 minute SMA on the TICK. I guess you could look at it on a 1 min line chart, as that would essentially look identical. I do like to have the bar chart with the SMA though, so I can see rejection.

The only levels I look at are +600, -600, and 0. If the TICK is closing above 600 I am biased long, and if the TICK is closing below-600 I am biased short. I always enter on limit orders, and I only buy when the TICK is moving downward (buying temporary weakness) and sell when the TICK is moving upward (selling temporary strength).

Now, I won't say always, but I will say that very often, the following things will occur together on the ES / TICK:

1. ES will hint at a trend change via higher high (bullish trend change) or a lower low (bearish trend change)
2. TICK will also show trend change by breaking it's trendline
3. Ideally, TICK will also close above 600 to confirm bullish sentiment, or close below -600 to confirm bearish sentiment.
4. ES will pull back into a clean 50% retracement for entry.

This scenario happens at least once a day, and oftentimes it will happen about 3-4. The mornings between 6:50 and 9:00 PST are the cleanest. And I rarely trade the afternoons because statistically I suck at them. It's not that the setups are less reliable, I just think I become a lot less patient.

There are other nuances to it here and there, but that's the majority of what I look for. You will notice that TICK trends carry over from the previous day, regardless of overnight price action.

The 50% pullbacks are usually super clean on the ES, to the point where you can get a to-the-tick fill and not even have the market go against you at all (minus the 1 tick to guarantee your fill). Oh, and I personally will NEVER EVER EVER fade extreme TICK readings. I'm sure that works great for some people, but I have been slammed so hard trying to pick a top or bottom like this that I have finally learned to stop. I'd rather get stomped trying to buy a pullback, as opposed to selling a +1300 TICK reading and watch the market climb another 5 points.

So yeah, I've pretty much laid the whole thing out there. Let me know if you have any questions :)
More...

Phenomenal explanation, thank you for taking the time.

You are a good man :)

FoN
 
Quote from bigsnack:4. ES will pull back into a clean 50% retracement for entry. The 50% pullbacks are usually super clean on the ES
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Hi, bigsnack...thanks a lot for your trading tips...I have a couple of questions for you:

1-What about stops? I see a red line so I suppose it's the 61.8 Fib...
2-Why do you use +-600 ticks as a key level? Why not 500 or 750?
3-What about targets? I see another line...Fib 27.2 extension?
 
Quote from bigsnack:

I've always been a one trick pony for the most part. I just have one setup! Of course I get emotional and overtrade at times, but the bread and butter always pulls through.
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The only caveat I would put is that NYSE TICK readings from TOS or Ameritrade are a lag versus the IB feed, which believe t or not has the fastest, even next to most 3rd party. To get the IB tick feed, just plug in NT.
 
Quote from marceck:

The only caveat I would put is that NYSE TICK readings from TOS or Ameritrade are a lag versus the IB feed, which believe t or not has the fastest, even next to most 3rd party. To get the IB tick feed, just plug in NT.
More...

Yes I've seen that. I've also seen that the readings themselves can differ on Ninja from the readings I see on TOS. For better or worse, I'm used to the TOS feed and how it looks, so I think I'm married.
 
08-25-11 06:43 PM

08-25-11 03:48 PM GMT

Quote from Buy1Sell2:

Order changed. Entry sell stop 1164.25 If triggered, the initial protective buy stop will be 1220.00. 1 contract.




--Stopped in. Lowering protective buy stop to 1191.25
--Keeping everything the same here. 6:43 CST 8/25/11
--Wow--not stopped yet? 21:18 CST 8/27/11
 
Quote from Laissez Faire:

It has come to my attention that my postings here are not appreciated by certain individuals and I have been accused of plagiarism as well, so I think it`s time for a break at this point. I already spend too much time here (addiction) and was planning a break already so that I could get other stuff done, but this last one pushed me over the edge.
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Laissez Faire, you handled SrRuthenate's accusations with eloquence and elegance and now he's a convert. If even you can not stand up to the thugs, who else can? Don't forget the silent majority who may still see goodness in your posts. I thought Picaso gave you pretty good advice:)

OC
 
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