ES Journal Archive (2011)

[ammo]

vol,looked at the oi and 20-21 is too tight,what do ya see

 

[volente_00]

Quote from ammo:

vol,looked at the oi and 20-21 is too tight,what do ya see

what is 20-21 ?

 

[ammo]

was watching the volume early this morn 21 calls .,20 puts,looks more like 120 -123,what are your thoughts,you have been watching it for at least 2 weeks

 

[SrRuthenate]

Quote from Buy1Sell2:

I hate to bring this up where everyone is discussing financial markets etc., but the closest thing to a Holy Grail in trading is seasonal spread trading in the lean hogs and live cattle markets. Dead on patterns most of the time

To find the closest thing to a Holy Grail you have to go to the market with the highest liquidity, and then make a consistent amount of % in a steadily rising number of contracts, till that market cannot take your size without moving substantially. And then you have to move the market opportunistically to keep getting bigger making little % while you wait for a bigger market to appear.

emg knows this, that's why he trades ES for 1 point at a time.

 

[volente_00]

Quote from ammo:

was watching the volume early this morn 21 calls .,20 puts,looks more like 120 -123,what are your thoughts,you have been watching it for at least 2 weeks

very skewed because of the selloff we had so for once it is not very clear other than the bounce from 1100 it predicted.


rough guess is 1160-1220 but if volatility returns then throw it out the window


lots of puts itm, I can only count a handful of times in the past 10 years that interest has expired so lopsided but it has been done before. They could even grind us back to the 1240-60 neckline with a squeeze eventually to shake out weak shorts.

I'm still short term upside biased for a move to 1240-60 as long as we hold 1160-70 area but I think we need to do this soon as seasonality is not on the bull side come sept and oct.

 

[Buy1Sell2]

08-11-11 06:27 PM
08-09-11 10:21 AM
08-08-11 09:08 AM
08-05-11 08:29 AM
08-03-11 08:36 PM
08-03-11 07:43 AM
08-02-11 08:38 AM
08-01-11 10:12 AM
07-28-11 07:11 PM
07-26-11 08:42 AM
07-20-11 07:23 AM
07-14-11 06:19 PM
07-11-11 08:29 AM
07-08-11 07:51 AM
06-30-11 09:47 AM

Currently short the Sep ES contract at 1314.50. Stop is 1372.50 6/30/11.
--Maintaining short here. Stop remains the same.7/8/11.
--Maintaining short here 7/11/11. Stop remains the same
--Maintaining short here 7/14/11. Stop remains the same (outside the noise)
--Maintaining short here 7/20/11. Stop remains the same
--Stop remains the same 7/26/11
--Stop continues here 7/28/11
--Don't see a reason yet to change stop 8/01/11. Staying short
--Will be looking very soon to lower the protective buy stop. Keeping it the same today however. 8/02/11.
--Staying short here with the same stop. 8/03/11.
--Stop lowered to 1361.75 8/03/11
--Continuing with same stop here. I believe this bounce is short covering only at this point. 8/05/11
--Staying short. Same stop 8/08/11
--Stop lowered to 1271.00 8/09/11 (possible error in stop placement--stop is too close to the noise)
--No change in position 8/11/11
--No change-staying short --same stop 8/16/11

 

[Lawrence Chan]

Vol,

Interesting observation you have on the open interest.

The obvious targets for this drop is gap fill at 1177 (ES) and then Friday low at high 1160s.

Matching your boundary for staying bullish.

 

[klinckphilip]

long 82.75

Stop 79.25

 

[austinp]

blue lines are high-odds price action magnets for ES today.

the 1174 zone is a double target... highly probable to print if price rolls over. If short and price is headed lower, I'll be holding for that objective all the way.

 

[klinckphilip]

Quote from klinckphilip:

long 82.75

Stop 79.25

Out 92