ES Journal Archive (2011)

[Lawrence Chan]

Quote from JSHINV:

Under a stop of 1140? I have a hard time with TOS to find gaps on daily charts - I haven't figured it out. Since dailys include overnight sessions which kind of makes gap hunting hard. Probably there is an extremely simple way to make an adjustment on TOS to find the gaps on daily - Maybe easier on Prophet (TOS).

You can use SPY instead.

Approx. low 1130s to low 1140s for ES.

 

[JSHINV]

Quote from Lawrence Chan:

You can use SPY instead.

Approx. low 1130s to low 1140s for ES.

Thanks Lawrence.

 

[newguy05]

es down 30pts, i thought friday was capitulation. Did the sp downgrade really cause such a selloff, isnt it baked in already. what's happening!

 

[Lawrence Chan]

Quote from newguy05:

es down 30pts, i thought friday was capitulation. Did the sp downgrade really cause such a selloff, isnt it baked in already. what's happening!

You cannot price in downgrade, period.

The lower rating = lower valuation across the board on almost everything.

Bonds getting a hair cut of 5% is lucky if it is not United States that get the lower rating.

All long term portfolio models will dump at least some US bonds to reduce "risk".

That's why peolpe are so afraid.

 

[JSHINV]

Quote from Lawrence Chan:

You cannot price in downgrade, period.

The lower rating = lower valuation across the board on almost everything.

Bonds getting a hair cut of 5% is lucky if it is not United States that get the lower rating.

All long term portfolio models will dump at least some US bonds to reduce "risk".

That's why peolpe are so afraid.

Well I will wait to see what NY and Chicago has to say about it tomorrow after open. cause treasury futures aren't going down that much if any compared to normal ranges and non dollar currencies aren't going wild outside of normal ranges.

 

[Lawrence Chan]

Quote from JSHINV:

Well I will wait to see what NY and Chicago has to say about it tomorrow after open. cause treasury futures aren't going down that much if any compared to normal ranges and non dollar currencies aren't going wild outside of normal ranges.

The reason is that actual downgrade of US bonds itself is not issued.

S&P says they will mass release the new ratings Monday.

People are still hoping that the US bonds will not be downgraded.

 

[JSHINV]

Quote from Lawrence Chan:

The reason is that actual downgrade of US bonds itself is not issued.

S&P says they will mass release the new ratings Monday.

People are still hoping that the US bonds will not be downgraded.

Even so, the fact non USD currencies and treasury futures staying within normal ranges tonight, while the ES takes a nose dive, is not adding up for me.

Los Angeles Times tonight:

Many on Wall Street argued that investors were unlikely to flee Treasuries, because even with the one-notch downgrade there still is no significant risk that the U.S. would be unable to pay its bills.

"What’s more, with the global economic recovery fading and stock markets stumbling, many investors seemed likely to continue to turn to Treasuries as a place to hide."

You know it may be that the equity markets this evening are freaking out over Europe.

 

[JSHINV]

Quote from JSHINV:

Even so, the fact non USD currencies and treasury futures staying within normal ranges tonight, while the ES takes a nose dive, is not adding up for me.

Los Angeles Times tonight:

Many on Wall Street argued that investors were unlikely to flee Treasuries, because even with the one-notch downgrade there still is no significant risk that the U.S. would be unable to pay its bills.

"What’s more, with the global economic recovery fading and stock markets stumbling, many investors seemed likely to continue to turn to Treasuries as a place to hide."

You know it may be that the equity markets this evening are freaking out over Europe.

But, I don't even think its Europe. I think they used fear to bring the futures indexes down tonight without any intention of the smart money to bail. The ES has probably already hit its near term bottom. It will probably go straight up to test the neckline of the hns - not tomorrow; but I bet its on its way. It will have a good short squeeze to push it on its way up over the next few days.

 

[Jestersofmalice]

lots of fun to be had for the bears, you feel.

 

[Eddiemorra]

volente said we're going to 1130 or something, so yes, lots to be made on the short side at the moment. weak weak market!