ES Journal Archive (2011)

[TailandFat]

Leptokurtosis
A state in which the volatility of a security is itself not volatile. That is, lepkurtosis is a state in which the volatility of a security changes at a relatively low rate. This is shown on a chart by a distribution line with data points resembling fat tails and a higher mean, with an even distribution. See also: Kurtosis, Platykurtosis.

 

[volente_00]

R70 hit to the tick


let the rally begin

 

[volente_00]

juicy spy premiums for sept


120 puts hinting at move to 1150


and calls locked to take no heat unless we close above 1250


The only question now is due we trade down to 1150 or do we trade back to 1245-50 area on a squeeze to retest the neck and then from there to 1150

 

[iloveoptions]

Quote from volente_00:

juicy spy premiums for sept


120 puts hinting at move to 1150


and calls locked to take no heat unless we close above 1250


The only question now is due we trade down to 1150 or do we trade back to 1245-50 area on a squeeze to retest the neck and then from there to 1150

If only we knew the right answer. But what about tomorrow?

 

[iloveoptions]

Quote from pokito:

stopped out?...I just saw 1294.75 print.
sorry, markets not too kind to you on this one..hope you have better luck next time.

Indeed I did. Who knew we would move 72 points in 24 hours! I have to take the good with the bad. Thanks for the good wishes though. I'll do my best to get them next time.

 

[joneog]

Quote from iloveoptions:

Indeed I did. Who knew we would move 72 points in 24 hours! I have to take the good with the bad. Thanks for the good wishes though. I'll do my best to get them next time.

Live to trade another day. On the bright side, you got out of that partial near the pre-market highs.

At least you had a plan and stayed true to your stop, plenty of people would have blown up averaging into this move.

Of course, now that you're out, you know the market's going to rally just to rub it in.

 

[JSHINV]

Quote from volente_00:

juicy spy premiums for sept


120 puts hinting at move to 1150


and calls locked to take no heat unless we close above 1250


The only question now is due we trade down to 1150 or do we trade back to 1245-50 area on a squeeze to retest the neck and then from there to 1150

Another thing I am looking at is on the SPX the 50 day SMA is pointing down and close (15-20 points) to the 200 day SMA which is flattening out. Will the 50 day SMA bounce or cross below the 200 day SMA? It's not something one would look at every day, its a long term thing - but they are close.

 

[klinckphilip]

It seems you called the bottom and knew where every resistance level was. If you had only done that trade in reverse.

I wish I would have seen you make 20-30k.


This was in response to iloveoptions

 

[iloveoptions]

Quote from joneog:

Live to trade another day. On the bright side, you got out of that partial near the pre-market highs.

At least you had a plan and stayed true to your stop, plenty of people would have blown up averaging into this move.

Of course, now that you're out, you know the market's going to rally just to rub it in.

Thank you joneog for the kind words. The market will more than likely rally, that's nearly certain. Because we both feel that way, I re-entered long with 1 position on a stop at 1199 not too long ago. My adds are awaiting at 1188.5 and 1184 in case we dump some more before we rally hard again. No stop on this 1 position, lol.

 

[volente_00]

black box has spit out tradeable bottom of 1137 to 1145 this year