ES Journal Archive (2011)

[joneog]

Quote from iloveoptions:

Why is the VIX subdued?

Either people taking off vol positions and hedges or people assuming the bull market will continue (or at least give a sharp bounce off the lows) and trying to take advantage of this spike.

Its hard to tell what it means with respect to the market. On one hand it could mean this move in the broader market is an over-reaction to the downside or it could mean that people are too agressive selling vol/too complacent with their longs which could be problematic if we break the lows.

Like I said earlier, it can be comforting or terrifying, depending how you view it. Generally in a capitulation move you want to see high volume selling, parabolic price action, and a spike in the VIX.

 

[klinckphilip]

Quote from klinckphilip:

Long 40.50
Stop 37

Got stopped out with a move 1 tick below my stop. That stop was a little too tight. But I got back in and it seems to be running the correct direction now. Gonna keep the stop low until there is a real upside.

 

[aquarian1]

Quote from joneog:

dont feel bad, I didnt pull the trigger at 45.50... now i just have to watch

this setup feels a bit similar to flash crash: big sell-off early followed by a big snap-back rally mid-day which failed. Only difference is we're not seeing a scary down move in the risk crosses (eur/jpy, eur/chf, aud/usd etc) and people rioting in the streets on tv.

Bulls need this thing to get back green soon or the last 3 hours will be dicey. The fact that the VIX hasn't spiked yet is kind of worrying too IMO

Thanks.

however, I'm my own worse enemy.
I move too soon then get stopped out.

I broke all kinds of rules today and have no-one but myself to blame.

1. No trades after 10am unless I catch the first end.
my first sell was at 10:05.
2. I sold before one of my key indicators confirmed the rise had stopped.
.. it goes on and on .. too painful to list all the rules I broke...

 

[aquarian1]

Quote from klinckphilip:

Got stopped out with a move 1 tick below my stop. That stop was a little too tight. But I got back in and it seems to be running the correct direction now. Gonna keep the stop low until there is a real upside.

tough luck.

I'm routing for you!

- from the sidelines!

 

[joneog]

Quote from aquarian1:

Thanks.

however, I'm my own worse enemy.
I move too soon then get stopped out.

I broke all kinds of rules today and have no-one but myself to blame.

1. No trades after 10am unless I catch the first end.
my first sell was at 10:05.
2. I sold before one of my key indicators confirmed the rise had stopped.
.. it goes on and on .. too painful to list all the rules I broke...

I could write an encyclopedia on my screw-ups. Just part of the game. One thing that helps me is to slow down after a mistake and become more conservative, as mistakes tend to compound(for me anyway.) I think a lot of times we try to "fix" a mistake with the next trade, and we end up just making another one.

 

[tomahawk]

Quote from tomahawk:

I have a feeling we'll see 44 or 37 before this downdraft ends, or at least 60-61. These magnets on the daily just seem too compelling, IMHO.

Update ...

 

[klinckphilip]

Quote from joneog:

I could write an encyclopedia on my screw-ups. Just part of the game. One thing that helps me is to slow down after a mistake and become more conservative, as mistakes tend to compound(for me anyway.) I think a lot of times we try to "fix" a mistake with the next trade, and we end up just making another one.

Agreed. If you stop and examine it again like it was your first trade you may see something you did not see before. Look at the longer time-frames and they will usually tell you where you messed up. I just did that I found that my original position was good I just made a mistake on the Stop/Entry but direction was/maybe correct.

 

[aquarian1]

Quote from joneog:

I could write an encyclopedia on my screw-ups. Just part of the game. One thing that helps me is to slow down after a mistake and become more conservative, as mistakes tend to compound(for me anyway.) I think a lot of times we try to "fix" a mistake with the next trade, and we end up just making another one.

either that or a bullet to the head - LOL

 

[aquarian1]

go phil go !! 1250 and rising!!!!!!!!

 

[aquarian1]

bewares the ides of March--- i mean Ides of 1254..