ES Journal Archive (2011)
- Thread starter Buy1Sell2
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Yes, it's been a rough day pokito! No bounce I can sink my teeth in, that's for sure. I would not be surprised if I go down 10-20% before it's said and done. I mean it's not out of the question. If we continue down to 1215, I'll be down close to 16k which would be 12.6% of account size. I need to get a spanking from time to time, lol. This week is shaping up to be it.
I think a couple days off or the week off would be good so you don't blow up your account
Not trying to be mean. Sometimes a break helps after 6 straight days of gripping the sides of your chair as it flows against you.
It is still in a nice down trend. On monday I thought that wednesday would be a turn around day but now its not looking as good.
Not trying to be mean. Sometimes a break helps after 6 straight days of gripping the sides of your chair as it flows against you.
It is still in a nice down trend. On monday I thought that wednesday would be a turn around day but now its not looking as good.
I understand that you're not trying to be sarcastic. I'm more bullish now than I was early in the week, lol. I stated my bias on Sunday night that I've turned bearish on the market. I admitted of making several mistake, including not reversing. I wasn't expecting the downtrend to be that viscous, and move that much in just 2 days! But it did. Fortunately, I sized in slowly.
No I'm not trying to prove something, just attempting to catch a bounce that has yet to materialize. Then again, I haven't put on a full position in a long while. Tomorrow could be the day were I have on 25 positions. Yikes!!! 1 tick = $312.5 Crazy!
I tell you though, we are fortunate to be experiencing great volatility without much increase in the VIX.
I also forgot to mention that Sunday night closing of my long position from last Friday with a + 17.75, has helped cushion the draw down considerably, so the draw down is not as bad as it seems. However, I do treat every new structured position( initial + adds) as a new one. Thus, my draw down on this has been on the moderate side, but not severe...yet.
Quote from Buy1Sell2:
Even if this averaging in were real, then setting yourself up for a possible 12.6% loss is to be considered wildly overextended and reckless. --Suggest reviewing proper risk management techniques.
Well, you have to put everything in the proper context B1S2. Yes, at 12.6% loss, it would be a big one from a swing trading perspective since that trade was placed based on just one idea. However, with the market moving 20+ points a day these days, I don't see it that detrimental, specially when you can get back to BE in a day or less.
You are also looking at the glass full of risk/reward, which is ok to a point. But I'm looking at the glass full of volatility. I ask myself everyday how can I milk it the best I can. It works most of the time, but sometimes, it falls flat on its face. I can only find out the outcome of this trade after the fact. I can't speculate what the final results would be till the end of the week.
I agree we are in a volatile market with the es which is what we wait for. i am not sure whatnthe vix will do. I think we will breach the neckline for a reversal, but I would not venture a guess when. could be tomorrow could be a few weeks. As Vol pointed there are a humungous open interest in puts at current price levels which could precipitate a short squeeze. i think LC thinks we will will touch 1300 again, I think he's looking at a gap fill ar some fib retracements (not sure). I think we are looking at a reversal. But hey what the hell it hasn't been confirmed yet ( I think it will be in the next week or sooner). point being you may be right. But you may not be. I may be right, but I may not be.
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