ES Journal Archive (2011)

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Quote from ammo:

if they told us exactly what the terms were and everything was hammered out,debt extended,greece,spain and ireland, italy,loans were extended.i still don't have a clue how that could be bullish,it might mean we wont drop 500 points,so it could be bullish in that it's not bearish,but i don't see how increasing debt will push the market up
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Oh, I think if they make a good deal soon the market will spike up. But I don't know for sure. It spiked last week when the NYT said they were close to a deal (the NYT was wrong) But, overall I still would be bearish, as a spike is not a trend - could retrace much of it the same day. But again the fact is I don't know - there is little precedent for this kind of thing. I'm out until I see what happens.
 
Quote from austinp:



Tops and bottoms on any time frame usually happen with a higher high top or lower low failure. That washes out the masses who stage protective stops just beyond swing points AND traps the masses who enter breakout - breakdown trade entries in the same zones.

Two different groups are triggered on stops in the same zones: reversal entries fading the trend (too early) who get hit on stop-loss orders thru the new swing extreme, and continuation trend traders who buy the extreme high / sell the extreme low before true turn comes get stopped out when it actually turns.

Key reversal situations have identifiable characteristics as the process of trend turn unfolds. But blindly fading a potential double top or bottom has no edge... and probably a negative expectancy now in the days of algo domination where clearing price levels past recent swings is part of their written plan.
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While I agree with what you wrote about identifiable characteristics of the trend turn process, I've always wondered about this kind of explanation about traders getting "trapped", though, because the amount of volume done above and below those swing points is minuscule relative to overall volume. Seems to me that if the purpose of those movements beyond the swing points was to trap traders in, there would have to be a very small number of parties splitting the profits made from doing so. If the ES goes 1 or 2 points beyond a swing point and then reverses, how many contracts will change hands in those 1 or 2 point spans?
 
Quote from Lojanica:

Don't you think it's bullish short term in so far as dollars are devalued, commodities have run, the Euro is a mess so the best place is equities. No one "Buys and Holds" anymore hence the volatility at trading range edges.
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if all traders are worried about the dollar tanking,then the large corporations must be pulling there hair out,how are they going to protect there cash,most of them are sitting on it,what will it be worth and how will they avoid it being devalued,maybe the market rallying will help them protect it ,maybe they are better off keeping there shares,it used to be that if the dollar was cheap compared to the euro,foriegn investors were sort of getting 2 shares for the price of 1 ,charts tell me we are at or near a top 47 on spx thurs,tl is 1353, still seeing a hns ,a distribution pattern
 
Quote from ammo:

if all traders are worried about the dollar tanking,then the large corporations must be pulling there hair out,how are they going to protect there cash,most of them are sitting on it,what will it be worth and how will they avoid it being devalued,maybe the market rallying will help them protect it ,maybe they are better off keeping there shares,it used to be that if the dollar was cheap compared to the euro,foriegn investors were sort of getting 2 shares for the price of 1 ,charts tell me we are at or near a top 47 on spx thurs,tl is 1353, still seeing a hns ,a distribution pattern
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I am with you. My prediction. Reverse (soon), then retest recent lows, then retest recent highs after August 31st, make new high for year around 1400 and this will likely be the high before we reverse and go substantially lower as the economy sputters and the gov't stutters. 2012?
 
Quote from logic_man:

While I agree with what you wrote about identifiable characteristics of the trend turn process, I've always wondered about this kind of explanation about traders getting "trapped", though, because the amount of volume done above and below those swing points is minuscule relative to overall volume. Seems to me that if the purpose of those movements beyond the swing points was to trap traders in, there would have to be a very small number of parties splitting the profits made from doing so. If the ES goes 1 or 2 points beyond a swing point and then reverses, how many contracts will change hands in those 1 or 2 point spans?
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The "trapped" volume doesn't come at extreme peaks... it forms in the congestion just inside there. That's what fundamentally forms the v-turn springs or the 1-2-3 formations reversal patterns. Transition thru that zone is where the stops going either direction are clustered, and that's where the real entry signals confirm.
 
Quote from JSHINV:

Actually, I am bearish also and I think your 53 number is valid, I just want to be prepared in case I am wrong in the off chance there is a break out of the range and there is a confirmation of a resumption of an upward trend. But I don't know at this point - especially with the uncertainty of raising the debt limit. Actually, its that news event is one of the biggest factors in me stepping back to be on the sidelines. I know pure technicians say don't consider news - price action and volume primarily tells all. But, I haven't reached the point, where I can ignore it - I probably never will. I am not talking about every day news - the debt limit drama is not normal stuff.
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On the other hand (not predicting - don't know), if we go into this week with no deal, it is possible the market would head south right away - including this evening and overnight. As each day passes without a deal, it would continue to head south. If there is no deal by the end of this week my guess is SPX 1345 won't be touched again this year.
 
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